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[title] => Ruski posao u najvećoj tajnosti traje već mjesecima: brodovi su spremni, čeka se samo Putinov ‘mig‘ i kreću u akciju
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Rusija već mjesecima stvara "flotu u sjeni" kako bi zaobišla zapadne naftne sankcije, a najviše u svemu tome profitiraju vlasnici brodova koje prodaju zastarjele tankere i po duploj većoj cijeni, piše Jutarnji list.
Bloomberg je još u listopadu pisao kako Moskva razvija ogromnu flotu tankera, dok se priprema za početak zabrane uvoza sirove ruske nafte u EU morskim putem.
Jučer je na snagu stupio embargo EU-a na rusku naftu i ograničenje cijena koje su uvele članice G7 i Australija. Prema dogovorenim sankcijama, Rusija neće smjeti prodavati svoju naftu po cijeni višoj od 60 dolara po barelu. Od 5. veljače sljedeće godine, iz Rusije se morskim putem više neće smjeti uvoziti ni naftni derivati, poput dizelskog goriva.
Moskva odbija prihvatiti sankcije i umjesto toga stvara veliku flotu rabljenih tankera koji će trgovati "u sjeni", kao što to već čine Iran i Venezuela.
Od kad je Putin pokrenuo invaziju na Ukrajinu, ukupno je prodano 393 naftnih tankera nepoznatim vlasnicima, prema podacima TradeWindsa. Brodski posrednik Braemar procjenjuje da je Rusija ove godine kupila više od 100 zastarjelih tankera.
Drastično su narasle i cijene po kojima se prodaju stari brodovi, koji inače prije završe na odlagalištu nego što pronađu novog vlasnika. "Prosječna cijena brodova za naftu starih 15 godina porasla je 37 posto na čak 52 milijuna u posljednjih šest mjeseci", rekao je za WSJ Stephen Gordon, voditelj istraživanja u brodskom posredniku Clarkson PLC-u.
Primjerice, krajem ovog ljeta grčki vlasnik tankera prodao je 22 godine star brod klase leda za 32 milijuna dolara. Isti taj brod je prošle godine procijenjen na 17 milijuna dolara. U rujnu je 18 godina star tanker Suezmax prodan neimenovanoj osobi iz Dubaija i sada prevozi rusku naftu iz Novorosijska u Tursku, a potom u Kinu.
Ne postoji jedinstvena definicija za ono što brod čini dijelom flote u sjeni. Prema izvješću američkog Ministarstva financija, neki tankeri mijenjaju zastave, isključuju odašiljače, šalju zavaravajuće signale ili razmjenjuju naftu na moru. Drugi mijenjaju imena brodova, krivotvore dokumente i zaobilaze kontrolu uz pomoć brojnih slojeva vlasništva. Dio ih također plovi bez osiguranja.
Za razliku od Irana, čija je prodaja nafte u cijelom svijetu zabranjena američkim sankcijama, kupnja i prodaja ruske sirove nafte i dalje će biti legalna. Ali trgovci će ili morati preuzeti rizik premještanja ruske nafte bez sigurnosne mreže zapadnog osiguranja. Indija, Kina i Turska već su preuzele dio ruske nafte koja je prije bila prodana Europi.
Nafta ostaje ključna za rusko financiranje rata u Ukrajini sada kada je Moskva gotovo prekinula prodaju prirodnog plina Europi. Veličina i agilnost flote u sjeni utjecat će na to hoće li Vladimir Putin uspjeti održati prihode od nafte. To bi također moglo imati veliki utjecaj na to hoće li cijene nafte i plina porasti u nadolazećim mjesecima. Ako ruska prodaja nafte padne jer nema dovoljno tankera u floti u sjeni, cijene sirove nafte mogle bi skočiti na globalnoj razini.
Brodovi flote u sjeni možda neće tako učinkovito prenositi naftu. Stariji brodovi plove sporo i lokalne vlasti u uskim kanalima kao što su Bospor i Sueski kanal mogle bi zaustaviti one brodove koji nemaju osiguranje.
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Rusija već mjesecima stvara "flotu u sjeni" kako bi zaobišla zapadne naftne sankcije, a najviše u svemu tome profitiraju vlasnici brodova koje prodaju zastarjele tankere i po duploj većoj cijeni, piše Jutarnji list.
Bloomberg je još u listopadu pisao kako Moskva razvija ogromnu flotu tankera, dok se priprema za početak zabrane uvoza sirove ruske nafte u EU morskim putem.
Jučer je na snagu stupio embargo EU-a na rusku naftu i ograničenje cijena koje su uvele članice G7 i Australija. Prema dogovorenim sankcijama, Rusija neće smjeti prodavati svoju naftu po cijeni višoj od 60 dolara po barelu. Od 5. veljače sljedeće godine, iz Rusije se morskim putem više neće smjeti uvoziti ni naftni derivati, poput dizelskog goriva.
Moskva odbija prihvatiti sankcije i umjesto toga stvara veliku flotu rabljenih tankera koji će trgovati "u sjeni", kao što to već čine Iran i Venezuela.
Od kad je Putin pokrenuo invaziju na Ukrajinu, ukupno je prodano 393 naftnih tankera nepoznatim vlasnicima, prema podacima TradeWindsa. Brodski posrednik Braemar procjenjuje da je Rusija ove godine kupila više od 100 zastarjelih tankera.
Drastično su narasle i cijene po kojima se prodaju stari brodovi, koji inače prije završe na odlagalištu nego što pronađu novog vlasnika. "Prosječna cijena brodova za naftu starih 15 godina porasla je 37 posto na čak 52 milijuna u posljednjih šest mjeseci", rekao je za WSJ Stephen Gordon, voditelj istraživanja u brodskom posredniku Clarkson PLC-u.
Primjerice, krajem ovog ljeta grčki vlasnik tankera prodao je 22 godine star brod klase leda za 32 milijuna dolara. Isti taj brod je prošle godine procijenjen na 17 milijuna dolara. U rujnu je 18 godina star tanker Suezmax prodan neimenovanoj osobi iz Dubaija i sada prevozi rusku naftu iz Novorosijska u Tursku, a potom u Kinu.
Ne postoji jedinstvena definicija za ono što brod čini dijelom flote u sjeni. Prema izvješću američkog Ministarstva financija, neki tankeri mijenjaju zastave, isključuju odašiljače, šalju zavaravajuće signale ili razmjenjuju naftu na moru. Drugi mijenjaju imena brodova, krivotvore dokumente i zaobilaze kontrolu uz pomoć brojnih slojeva vlasništva. Dio ih također plovi bez osiguranja.
Za razliku od Irana, čija je prodaja nafte u cijelom svijetu zabranjena američkim sankcijama, kupnja i prodaja ruske sirove nafte i dalje će biti legalna. Ali trgovci će ili morati preuzeti rizik premještanja ruske nafte bez sigurnosne mreže zapadnog osiguranja. Indija, Kina i Turska već su preuzele dio ruske nafte koja je prije bila prodana Europi.
Nafta ostaje ključna za rusko financiranje rata u Ukrajini sada kada je Moskva gotovo prekinula prodaju prirodnog plina Europi. Veličina i agilnost flote u sjeni utjecat će na to hoće li Vladimir Putin uspjeti održati prihode od nafte. To bi također moglo imati veliki utjecaj na to hoće li cijene nafte i plina porasti u nadolazećim mjesecima. Ako ruska prodaja nafte padne jer nema dovoljno tankera u floti u sjeni, cijene sirove nafte mogle bi skočiti na globalnoj razini.
Brodovi flote u sjeni možda neće tako učinkovito prenositi naftu. Stariji brodovi plove sporo i lokalne vlasti u uskim kanalima kao što su Bospor i Sueski kanal mogle bi zaustaviti one brodove koji nemaju osiguranje.
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13. svibanj 2024 23:58
