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[title] => Zašto je Putin toliko opsjednut Afrikom: kreće u osvajački pohod bez premca u ovom stoljeću, sada mu se sve poklopilo
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Oni koji predviđaju pad ruskog utjecaja u Africi nakon navodnog atentata na Jevgenija Prigožina ne mogu biti više u krivu. Mateusz Morawiecki, poljski premijer, u pravu je kada misli da će, pod izravnom kontrolom Vladimira Putina, Wagner postati još učinkovitiji - i opasniji. On je govorio o prijetnji u istočnoj Europi, ali isto vrijedi i drugdje u svijetu, posebice Africi gdje je Wagner potaknuo nestabilnost, osnažio autoritarne režime i pljačkao prirodne resurse.
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Još ne znamo kako će Wagner biti restrukturiran ili vođen u svijetu nakon Prigožina, ali to su pitanja drugog reda. Najvažnija činjenica je da će zloćudne političke, vojne i gospodarske aktivnosti skupine nedvojbeno opstati. Previše su vrijedni za Moskvu da bi im dopustila da nestanu, s obzirom na sposobnost skupine da se umetne u ključne strateške regije i potakne antizapadno raspoloženje. Da se vidi koliko je to bilo učinkovito, samo treba pogledati njihov utjecaj na vladu Malija, piše The Telegraph, a prenosi Jutarnji list.
‘Naći će drugog šefa‘
Kao komercijalni izvođači operacija, borci Wagnera mogu dovesti rusku vojnu silu tamo gdje bi njena otvorena uporaba bila politički nemoguća. Ekonomski je također ova skupina ključna jer generira goleme prihode za ratnu riznicu Kremlja od zlata, dijamanata i drugih minerala, koji se često krijumčare iz Afrike kako bi se izbjegle zapadne sankcije.
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Kako rat bude odmicao, Moskva će trebati ne samo održavati te aktivnosti nego ih i proširivati, a rješavanje Prigožina možda je pomoglo da se to omogući. Sada se sve poklopilo. Uklonjen je čovjek koji je postao previše moćan i to omogućuje Putinu da osigura veću lojalnost afričkih vlada koje održava na vlasti uz pomoć ruskih plaćeničkih usluga. To što je Prigožinu, čak i nakon obustavljanja državnog udara, bilo dopušteno da se sastane s nacionalnim čelnicima i diplomatima na prošlomjesečnom afričko-ruskom summitu u Sankt Peterburgu dokaz je koliko ozbiljno Kremlj shvaća ovo pitanje.
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U mnogim su slučajevima afrički čelnici čvrsto vezani za svoje posredničke odnose s Rusijom, tko god da je na čelu zemalja. Savjetnik predsjednika Faustina-Archangea Touadéra iz Srednjoafričke Republike, koja uvelike ovisi o grupi Wagner, jasno je dao do znanja da se odnosi s ruskim plaćenicima neće promijeniti nakon Prigožinove smrti. "Naći će drugog šefa", rekao je on.
I doista, radne odnose nastavit će održavati Wagnerovi državni menadžeri, koji će vjerojatno ostati na mjestu unatoč smrti svog šefa - njihova odanost vlastitim plaćama nadmašuje sve ostalo.
Moguć i ‘rebrand‘
Borcima Wagnera takve promjene nisu strane. Skupina je kontinuirano prelazila iz jedne strukture u drugu kako okolnosti nalažu, s neprobojnom mrežom podgrupa, partnerstava te političkih i financijskih korisnika. Možda bi mogli zadržati identitet koji je postao poznat vođama koji ih angažiraju, iako bi također moglo biti prikladno napraviti nekakav ‘rebrand‘, prikrivajući svoje postupke i pomažući u izbjegavanju sankcija.
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Mnoge komponente skupine lako se mogu uklopiti u neki drugi entitet pod kontrolom Kremlja kao što je Redut, plaćenička skupina povezana s ruskom vojnom obavještajnom službom GRU.
Ako ništa drugo, operacije ruskih plaćenika na afričkom kontinentu postat će još učinkovitije jer Wagnerova sredstva postaju gotovo neograničena. Ova rastuća prijetnja opasan je dio mnogo većeg problema za Zapad dok Rusija i Kina šire utjecaj u Africi i čine sve što mogu da potisnu zapadni utjecaj i gospodarsku moć.
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Velika Britanija bila je prespora u prepoznavanju i suprotstavljanju strateškoj prijetnji Wagnera i drugih ruskih privatnih vojski. Sankcije su uvedene, ali britanska vlada se mjesecima dvoumi hoće li je proglasiti terorističkom organizacijom ili ne. Sada zapadne demokracije moraju hitno pronaći način da se vatrom bore protiv vatre u novom ruskom obliku ratovanja.
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title=Zašto je Putin toliko opsjednut s Afrikom: kreće u osvajački pohod bez premca u ovom stoljeću, ada mu se sve poklopilo
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Oni koji predviđaju pad ruskog utjecaja u Africi nakon navodnog atentata na Jevgenija Prigožina ne mogu biti više u krivu. Mateusz Morawiecki, poljski premijer, u pravu je kada misli da će, pod izravnom kontrolom Vladimira Putina, Wagner postati još učinkovitiji - i opasniji. On je govorio o prijetnji u istočnoj Europi, ali isto vrijedi i drugdje u svijetu, posebice Africi gdje je Wagner potaknuo nestabilnost, osnažio autoritarne režime i pljačkao prirodne resurse.
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Još ne znamo kako će Wagner biti restrukturiran ili vođen u svijetu nakon Prigožina, ali to su pitanja drugog reda. Najvažnija činjenica je da će zloćudne političke, vojne i gospodarske aktivnosti skupine nedvojbeno opstati. Previše su vrijedni za Moskvu da bi im dopustila da nestanu, s obzirom na sposobnost skupine da se umetne u ključne strateške regije i potakne antizapadno raspoloženje. Da se vidi koliko je to bilo učinkovito, samo treba pogledati njihov utjecaj na vladu Malija, piše The Telegraph, a prenosi Jutarnji list.
‘Naći će drugog šefa‘
Kao komercijalni izvođači operacija, borci Wagnera mogu dovesti rusku vojnu silu tamo gdje bi njena otvorena uporaba bila politički nemoguća. Ekonomski je također ova skupina ključna jer generira goleme prihode za ratnu riznicu Kremlja od zlata, dijamanata i drugih minerala, koji se često krijumčare iz Afrike kako bi se izbjegle zapadne sankcije.
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Kako rat bude odmicao, Moskva će trebati ne samo održavati te aktivnosti nego ih i proširivati, a rješavanje Prigožina možda je pomoglo da se to omogući. Sada se sve poklopilo. Uklonjen je čovjek koji je postao previše moćan i to omogućuje Putinu da osigura veću lojalnost afričkih vlada koje održava na vlasti uz pomoć ruskih plaćeničkih usluga. To što je Prigožinu, čak i nakon obustavljanja državnog udara, bilo dopušteno da se sastane s nacionalnim čelnicima i diplomatima na prošlomjesečnom afričko-ruskom summitu u Sankt Peterburgu dokaz je koliko ozbiljno Kremlj shvaća ovo pitanje.
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U mnogim su slučajevima afrički čelnici čvrsto vezani za svoje posredničke odnose s Rusijom, tko god da je na čelu zemalja. Savjetnik predsjednika Faustina-Archangea Touadéra iz Srednjoafričke Republike, koja uvelike ovisi o grupi Wagner, jasno je dao do znanja da se odnosi s ruskim plaćenicima neće promijeniti nakon Prigožinove smrti. "Naći će drugog šefa", rekao je on.
I doista, radne odnose nastavit će održavati Wagnerovi državni menadžeri, koji će vjerojatno ostati na mjestu unatoč smrti svog šefa - njihova odanost vlastitim plaćama nadmašuje sve ostalo.
Moguć i ‘rebrand‘
Borcima Wagnera takve promjene nisu strane. Skupina je kontinuirano prelazila iz jedne strukture u drugu kako okolnosti nalažu, s neprobojnom mrežom podgrupa, partnerstava te političkih i financijskih korisnika. Možda bi mogli zadržati identitet koji je postao poznat vođama koji ih angažiraju, iako bi također moglo biti prikladno napraviti nekakav ‘rebrand‘, prikrivajući svoje postupke i pomažući u izbjegavanju sankcija.
---
---
Mnoge komponente skupine lako se mogu uklopiti u neki drugi entitet pod kontrolom Kremlja kao što je Redut, plaćenička skupina povezana s ruskom vojnom obavještajnom službom GRU.
Ako ništa drugo, operacije ruskih plaćenika na afričkom kontinentu postat će još učinkovitije jer Wagnerova sredstva postaju gotovo neograničena. Ova rastuća prijetnja opasan je dio mnogo većeg problema za Zapad dok Rusija i Kina šire utjecaj u Africi i čine sve što mogu da potisnu zapadni utjecaj i gospodarsku moć.
---
---
Velika Britanija bila je prespora u prepoznavanju i suprotstavljanju strateškoj prijetnji Wagnera i drugih ruskih privatnih vojski. Sankcije su uvedene, ali britanska vlada se mjesecima dvoumi hoće li je proglasiti terorističkom organizacijom ili ne. Sada zapadne demokracije moraju hitno pronaći način da se vatrom bore protiv vatre u novom ruskom obliku ratovanja.
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12. svibanj 2024 23:35
