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Vladimir Putin ne daje nikakve znakove da se sprema povući, ali čak i ako on sâm ne razmišlja o svom nasljedniku, mnogi u Rusiji razmišljaju, piše za Telegraph Mark Galeotti s londonskog University Collegea, dubinski upoznat sa zbivanjima u vrhovima ruskog vladajućeg aparata. Vojni preokreti u Ukrajini, politička neizvjesnost kod kuće i pitanja o njegovu zdravlju - sve to znači da elite tiho raspravljaju o nečemu što bi prije samo nekoliko mjeseci bilo nezamislivo: kako će izgledati život nakon Putina?

Propagandni stroj Kremlja neumorno radi, objašnjavajući kako Putinova 'specijalna vojna operacija' ispunjava zacrtane ciljeve, ali važno je razlikovati ono što se govori široj populaciji od onoga što znaju elite. Putinov ugled je pretrpio ozbiljnu štetu. Čak i ako ruske snage trenutno postižu neke skromne uspjehe u Donbasu, ne može se zanemariti grozni neuspjeh njegove početne strategije, s ambicioznim ciljem zauzimanja Kijeva i nametanja marionetske vlade, navodi Galeotti, a prenosi Jutarnji list. 

Putin se možda nada da će Zapad izgubiti entuzijazam za potporu Ukrajini, ali čak i ako se sankcije sutra ukinu, već učinjena šteta znači da će ruskom gospodarstvu trebati godine da se oporavi. Sankcije su pridonijele i tome da inflacija naraste na gotovo 18 posto, a do ove jeseni, zajedno sa sve većom nezaposlenošću, postat će vrlo ozbiljan problem. U međuvremenu, vojska ima problema s pronalaženjem ljudi kojima bi popunili svoje redove, a generali su ljuti zbog Putinova premišljanja o mobilizaciji rezervista.

Nadalje, stalne glasine o Putinovim ozbiljnim zdravstvenim problemima - a nagađa se da boluje od raka ili Parkinsonove bolesti - doprinose osjećaju da se njegovo vrijeme bliži kraju. (To također objašnjava i zašto Ukrajinci toliko rado šire ove priče).

Mala je vjerojatnost da će Putin biti odmah svrgnut jer je zaštićen moćnim sigurnosnim aparatom koji se sastoji od više međusobno suprotstavljenih agencija koje motre jedna drugu.

No, prije ili kasnije, njegovo zdravlje se može dodatno pogoršati ili će situacija u Rusiji postati toliko teška da će kriza natjerati dovoljno pripadnika elite da se okrene protiv njega.

I tada će pitanje od milijun dolara glasiti: Tko će ga zamijeniti?

Ako Putin bude mogao birati, onda će vjerojatno izabrati nekoga za koga misli da mu može povjeriti svoju osobnu sigurnost i svoje naslijeđe. To bi mogao biti netko poput Alekseja Djumina, jednog od njegovih bivših tjelohranitelja, a sada guvernera regije Tula. No, upitno je bi li ostatak elite prihvatio još jednog moćnika.

Ministar obrane Sergej Šojgu - jedan od Putinovih najbližih saveznika - nekoć se činio uvjerljivom alternativom, ali njegova je zvijezda izgubila sjaj zbog loše izvedbe vojske. Međutim, on je lukavac koji zna preživjeti i još uvijek ga se ne može posve isključiti.

Ako Putin ne bude mogao birati, vjerojatno će se o sukcesiji elite dogovoriti iza kulisa. Pokušat će osigurati da onaj tko se pojavi kao novi predsjednik bude neka osoba znatno manje moćna nego što je Putin postao. Problem je u tome što ne postoji jedan jedini dominantni blok moći koji je spreman nametnuti svog kandidata kada za to dođe vrijeme.

On - a vjerojatno će se raditi o muškarcu - mogao bi biti neki predsjednik uprave sklon laktarenju, netko u stanju postići konsenzus unutar ove vladajuće koalicije sačinjene od špijuna, generala, poslovnih ljudi i birokrata. To bi mogla biti tehnokratska figura poput premijera Mihaila Mišustina ili gradonačelnika Moskve Sergeja Sobjanjina.

Alternativno, to će možda biti samo figura, lutak kojeg se nitko zapravo ne boji. Bivši predsjednik i premijer Dmitrij Medvedev trenutno se pokušava repozicionirati kao "žestoki momak", ali je još uvijek figura lake kategorije i mogao bi odgovarati toj ulozi. Slično je i sa zamjenikom šefa kabineta predsjednika i vrhunskim spin-doktorom Sergejem Kirijenkom.

Što god da se dogodi, to što se o različitim kandidatima - iako oprezno - uopće raspravlja, sugerira da čak ni moskovski elitni krugovi ne misle da će Putin vratiti svoj stari autoritet. Na ovaj ili onaj način, dani su mu odbrojani, zaključuje Galeotti.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with families awarded Orders of Parental Glory via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence, outside Moscow, on June 1, 2022, the International Children's Day. (Photo by Mikhail METZEL/SPUTNIK/AFP)

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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with families awarded Orders of Parental Glory via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence, outside Moscow, on June 1, 2022, the International Children's Day. (Photo by Mikhail METZEL/SPUTNIK/AFP)

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Vladimir Putin ne daje nikakve znakove da se sprema povući, ali čak i ako on sâm ne razmišlja o svom nasljedniku, mnogi u Rusiji razmišljaju, piše za Telegraph Mark Galeotti s londonskog University Collegea, dubinski upoznat sa zbivanjima u vrhovima ruskog vladajućeg aparata. Vojni preokreti u Ukrajini, politička neizvjesnost kod kuće i pitanja o njegovu zdravlju - sve to znači da elite tiho raspravljaju o nečemu što bi prije samo nekoliko mjeseci bilo nezamislivo: kako će izgledati život nakon Putina?

Propagandni stroj Kremlja neumorno radi, objašnjavajući kako Putinova 'specijalna vojna operacija' ispunjava zacrtane ciljeve, ali važno je razlikovati ono što se govori široj populaciji od onoga što znaju elite. Putinov ugled je pretrpio ozbiljnu štetu. Čak i ako ruske snage trenutno postižu neke skromne uspjehe u Donbasu, ne može se zanemariti grozni neuspjeh njegove početne strategije, s ambicioznim ciljem zauzimanja Kijeva i nametanja marionetske vlade, navodi Galeotti, a prenosi Jutarnji list. 

Putin se možda nada da će Zapad izgubiti entuzijazam za potporu Ukrajini, ali čak i ako se sankcije sutra ukinu, već učinjena šteta znači da će ruskom gospodarstvu trebati godine da se oporavi. Sankcije su pridonijele i tome da inflacija naraste na gotovo 18 posto, a do ove jeseni, zajedno sa sve većom nezaposlenošću, postat će vrlo ozbiljan problem. U međuvremenu, vojska ima problema s pronalaženjem ljudi kojima bi popunili svoje redove, a generali su ljuti zbog Putinova premišljanja o mobilizaciji rezervista.

Nadalje, stalne glasine o Putinovim ozbiljnim zdravstvenim problemima - a nagađa se da boluje od raka ili Parkinsonove bolesti - doprinose osjećaju da se njegovo vrijeme bliži kraju. (To također objašnjava i zašto Ukrajinci toliko rado šire ove priče).

Mala je vjerojatnost da će Putin biti odmah svrgnut jer je zaštićen moćnim sigurnosnim aparatom koji se sastoji od više međusobno suprotstavljenih agencija koje motre jedna drugu.

No, prije ili kasnije, njegovo zdravlje se može dodatno pogoršati ili će situacija u Rusiji postati toliko teška da će kriza natjerati dovoljno pripadnika elite da se okrene protiv njega.

I tada će pitanje od milijun dolara glasiti: Tko će ga zamijeniti?

Ako Putin bude mogao birati, onda će vjerojatno izabrati nekoga za koga misli da mu može povjeriti svoju osobnu sigurnost i svoje naslijeđe. To bi mogao biti netko poput Alekseja Djumina, jednog od njegovih bivših tjelohranitelja, a sada guvernera regije Tula. No, upitno je bi li ostatak elite prihvatio još jednog moćnika.

Ministar obrane Sergej Šojgu - jedan od Putinovih najbližih saveznika - nekoć se činio uvjerljivom alternativom, ali njegova je zvijezda izgubila sjaj zbog loše izvedbe vojske. Međutim, on je lukavac koji zna preživjeti i još uvijek ga se ne može posve isključiti.

Ako Putin ne bude mogao birati, vjerojatno će se o sukcesiji elite dogovoriti iza kulisa. Pokušat će osigurati da onaj tko se pojavi kao novi predsjednik bude neka osoba znatno manje moćna nego što je Putin postao. Problem je u tome što ne postoji jedan jedini dominantni blok moći koji je spreman nametnuti svog kandidata kada za to dođe vrijeme.

On - a vjerojatno će se raditi o muškarcu - mogao bi biti neki predsjednik uprave sklon laktarenju, netko u stanju postići konsenzus unutar ove vladajuće koalicije sačinjene od špijuna, generala, poslovnih ljudi i birokrata. To bi mogla biti tehnokratska figura poput premijera Mihaila Mišustina ili gradonačelnika Moskve Sergeja Sobjanjina.

Alternativno, to će možda biti samo figura, lutak kojeg se nitko zapravo ne boji. Bivši predsjednik i premijer Dmitrij Medvedev trenutno se pokušava repozicionirati kao "žestoki momak", ali je još uvijek figura lake kategorije i mogao bi odgovarati toj ulozi. Slično je i sa zamjenikom šefa kabineta predsjednika i vrhunskim spin-doktorom Sergejem Kirijenkom.

Što god da se dogodi, to što se o različitim kandidatima - iako oprezno - uopće raspravlja, sugerira da čak ni moskovski elitni krugovi ne misle da će Putin vratiti svoj stari autoritet. Na ovaj ili onaj način, dani su mu odbrojani, zaključuje Galeotti.

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Mikhail Metzel/Afp
Mikhail Metzel/Afp

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with families awarded Orders of Parental Glory via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence, outside Moscow, on June 1, 2022, the International Children's Day. (Photo by Mikhail METZEL/SPUTNIK/AFP)
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Svijetruski čelnik

Tko će sjesti na mjesto ‘cara‘? Ruske elite pripremaju se za Putinov kraj, moskovski kuloari puni su priča o mogućem nasljedniku

Piše PSD
6. lipnja 2022. - 21:31
&lt;p&gt;Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with families awarded Orders of Parental Glory via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence, outside Moscow, on June 1, 2022, the International Children&amp;#39;s Day. (Photo by Mikhail METZEL/SPUTNIK/AFP)&lt;/p&gt;
PREMIUM
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with families awarded Orders of Parental Glory via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence, outside Moscow, on June 1, 2022, the International Children's Day. (Photo by Mikhail METZEL/SPUTNIK/AFP)Mikhail Metzel/Afp

Vladimir Putin ne daje nikakve znakove da se sprema povući, ali čak i ako on sâm ne razmišlja o svom nasljedniku, mnogi u Rusiji razmišljaju, piše za Telegraph Mark Galeotti s londonskog University Collegea, dubinski upoznat sa zbivanjima u vrhovima ruskog vladajućeg aparata. Vojni preokreti u Ukrajini, politička neizvjesnost kod kuće i pitanja o njegovu zdravlju - sve to znači da elite tiho raspravljaju o nečemu što bi prije samo nekoliko mjeseci bilo nezamislivo: kako će izgledati život nakon Putina?

Propagandni stroj Kremlja neumorno radi, objašnjavajući kako Putinova 'specijalna vojna operacija' ispunjava zacrtane ciljeve, ali važno je razlikovati ono što se govori široj populaciji od onoga što znaju elite. Putinov ugled je pretrpio ozbiljnu štetu. Čak i ako ruske s...

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12. svibanj 2024 10:03