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Njemačko gospodarstvo porast će ove godine slabije no što se očekivalo zbog problema u nabavi koji koče industriju, ali snažan oporavak tek je malo odgođen, do 2022., izvijestio je u srijedu institut ifo.
Najveće europsko gospodarstvo porast će ove godine 3,3 posto, procijenio je institut, snizivši procjenu iz ožujka za 0,4 postotna boda.
Iduće godine aktivnosti bi trebale ubrzati na 4,3 posto, što je za 1,1 postotni bod više no što je ifo prognozirao početkom proljeća.
"Gospodarstvo će kratkoročno zakočiti nestašica u opskrbi ponajprije primarnim proizvodima", objasnio je ekonomist instituta Timo Wollmershaeuser.
Njemački proizvođači automobila Volkswagen i Daimler izvijestili su u utorak da će zbog nestašice poluvodiča ponovo skratiti radno vrijeme u nekim pogonima, podsjeća Reuters.
"Za oporavak, koji je sam po sebi snažan zbog otvaranja gospodarstva, trebat će tek nešto više vremena no što smo očekivali u ožujku", naglasio je Wollmershaueuser.
Ifove procjene manje su optimistične od onih središnje banke, koja je za ovu godinu prognozirala 3,7-postotni rast aktivnosti. U 2022. aktivnosti bi po njima trebale ubrzati na 5,2 posto.
Za razliku od Bundesbanka, institut očekuje nešto slabiju podršku potrošnje kućanstava, budući da mnogi potrošači vjerojatno neće odmah potrošiti svu pandemijsku ušteđevinu, objašnjava ekonomist ifoa.
Oporavak od pandemije covida 19 i uska grla u opskrbi čipovima, drvnom građom i drugim materijalima istodobno podižu cijene, pa će inflacija ove godine poskočiti na 2,6 posto, s 0,6 posto u 2020., procjenjuju u ifou. U 2022. rast cijena trebao bi po njima usporiti 1,9 posto.
Snažan oporavak vjerojatno će potaknuti domaću potražnju a time i uvoz, koji bi ove i iduće godine trebao rasti snažnije od izvoza.
To će pomoći Njemačkoj da smanji veliki višak na tekućem računu platne bilance, iskazan udjelom u BDP-u, na 5,8 posto u ovoj, te na 4,9 posto u idućoj godini, čime će prvi put u puno godina biti ispod plafona propisanog u EU, primjećuje ifo.
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Njemačko gospodarstvo porast će ove godine slabije no što se očekivalo zbog problema u nabavi koji koče industriju, ali snažan oporavak tek je malo odgođen, do 2022., izvijestio je u srijedu institut ifo.
Najveće europsko gospodarstvo porast će ove godine 3,3 posto, procijenio je institut, snizivši procjenu iz ožujka za 0,4 postotna boda.
Iduće godine aktivnosti bi trebale ubrzati na 4,3 posto, što je za 1,1 postotni bod više no što je ifo prognozirao početkom proljeća.
"Gospodarstvo će kratkoročno zakočiti nestašica u opskrbi ponajprije primarnim proizvodima", objasnio je ekonomist instituta Timo Wollmershaeuser.
Njemački proizvođači automobila Volkswagen i Daimler izvijestili su u utorak da će zbog nestašice poluvodiča ponovo skratiti radno vrijeme u nekim pogonima, podsjeća Reuters.
"Za oporavak, koji je sam po sebi snažan zbog otvaranja gospodarstva, trebat će tek nešto više vremena no što smo očekivali u ožujku", naglasio je Wollmershaueuser.
Ifove procjene manje su optimistične od onih središnje banke, koja je za ovu godinu prognozirala 3,7-postotni rast aktivnosti. U 2022. aktivnosti bi po njima trebale ubrzati na 5,2 posto.
Za razliku od Bundesbanka, institut očekuje nešto slabiju podršku potrošnje kućanstava, budući da mnogi potrošači vjerojatno neće odmah potrošiti svu pandemijsku ušteđevinu, objašnjava ekonomist ifoa.
Oporavak od pandemije covida 19 i uska grla u opskrbi čipovima, drvnom građom i drugim materijalima istodobno podižu cijene, pa će inflacija ove godine poskočiti na 2,6 posto, s 0,6 posto u 2020., procjenjuju u ifou. U 2022. rast cijena trebao bi po njima usporiti 1,9 posto.
Snažan oporavak vjerojatno će potaknuti domaću potražnju a time i uvoz, koji bi ove i iduće godine trebao rasti snažnije od izvoza.
To će pomoći Njemačkoj da smanji veliki višak na tekućem računu platne bilance, iskazan udjelom u BDP-u, na 5,8 posto u ovoj, te na 4,9 posto u idućoj godini, čime će prvi put u puno godina biti ispod plafona propisanog u EU, primjećuje ifo.
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AFP
Prosinačke demonstracije radnika tvornice Mercedes-Benz zbog plana štednje i najave otpuštanja polovice zaposlenika
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20. svibanj 2024 08:45
