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Od deset prosječnih birača Donalda Trumpa i njegovog demokratskog izazivača Joea Bidena više od četvorice neće prihvatiti rezultate predsjedničkih izbora u studenome ako njihov preferirani kandidat izgubi, pokazuje najnovija anketa Reutersa i agencije Ipsos.

Istraživanje provedeno koncem listopada pokazuje kako 43 posto Bidenovih pristaša nije spremno prihvatiti Trumpovu pobjedu, dok 41 posto Amerikanaca koji žele još jedan Trumpov mandat ne bi prihvatilo Bidenovu pobjedu. U ovom sumraku demokratske kulture i (post)izborne tolerancije utješno je tek da su puno manji dijelovi američkog elektorata spremni poduzeti radikalne poteze kako bi demonstrirali svoje nezadovoljstvo: samo 22 posto „bidenovaca“ i 16 posto „trumpovaca“ uključilo bi se u ulične nemire i nasilne izraze javnog nezadovoljstva izgubi li njihov politički favorit.

Dužnosnici zaduženi za izbore u SAD-u već se tradicionalno nose s nizom izazova vezanih za nepovjerenje javnosti u izborni rezultat, no ove je godine takva atmosfera očito na vrhuncu. Na prošlim izborima fokus je bio na ruskim pokušajima upliva, kojih ne nedostaje ni ove godine: najviše rangirani ljudi u sigurnosnim agencijama upozorili su prošlog tjedna na ponovne opasnosti od Rusije i Irana koji su pokušali računalno provaliti u američki glasački sustav.

Sam Donald Trump je, pak, također više puta podgrijao juhu i verbalno doveo u pitanje integritet američkih izbora, tvrdeći da je više nego izgledno kako je ovogodišnji proces „unaprijed namješten" protiv njega. Uporno je, bez ikakvih dokaza, tvrdio i da će rapidan porast broja dopisnih glasača ove godine povećati vjerojatnost prijevare, te se odbio obvezati na miran prijenos vlasti ako prebrojavanje glasova pokaže da je izgubio.

Politolog sa sveučilišta Columbia Donald Green komentirao je kako je utješno što rezultati zadnje ankete ipak svjedoče o malom broju iznimno radikalnih građana koji su spremni sudjelovati u mogućem postizbornom nasilju. No, upozorio je kako bi u slučaju tijesnog rezultata ili vjerodostojno razotkrivenog pokušaja prijevare birača ipak moglo doći do širega uličnog nezadovoljstva. Mnogi ljudi koji su Trumpovi neistomišljenici zasad zadržavaju dah i nadaju se poštenom ishodu, upozorava Green, no neprihvaćanje očitog poraza moglo bi im itekako probuditi i produbiti gnjev.

Zadnja anketa Reutersa i Ipsosa o izbornom rejtingu dvojice rivala pokazuje kako Biden vodi Trumpa za 8 postotaka na nacionalnoj razini: 51% vjerojatnih glasača kaže da podržava demokratskog izazivača, dok 43% njih glasa za aktualnog predsjednika. Biden uvjerljivo vodi u Wisconsinu i Michiganu, ali se čini da utrka postaje sve tješnja u ostalim odlučujućim državama izbornoga bojišta: primarno Pennsylvaniji, Floridi, Arizoni i Sjevernoj Karolini.

Prema ranijim izvještajima sigurnosnih agencija, opasnost od rušilaštva u postizbornim nemirima u SAD-u ipak najviše prijeti od krajnje desničarskih milicija poput Proud Boysa i pokreta Boogaloo, koje je svojim izbornim izjavama otvoreno ohrabrivao Donald Trump. On je s govornica u nekoliko navrata pozivao pristaše da "iziđu na birališta i gledaju vrlo pažljivo na sve krađe i pljačke", što je fraza koju sigurnosni stručnjaci tumače kao predsjednikov poziv na uzimanje oružja i patroliranje biračkim mjestima.                                        

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Od deset prosječnih birača Donalda Trumpa i njegovog demokratskog izazivača Joea Bidena više od četvorice neće prihvatiti rezultate predsjedničkih izbora u studenome ako njihov preferirani kandidat izgubi, pokazuje najnovija anketa Reutersa i agencije Ipsos.

Istraživanje provedeno koncem listopada pokazuje kako 43 posto Bidenovih pristaša nije spremno prihvatiti Trumpovu pobjedu, dok 41 posto Amerikanaca koji žele još jedan Trumpov mandat ne bi prihvatilo Bidenovu pobjedu. U ovom sumraku demokratske kulture i (post)izborne tolerancije utješno je tek da su puno manji dijelovi američkog elektorata spremni poduzeti radikalne poteze kako bi demonstrirali svoje nezadovoljstvo: samo 22 posto „bidenovaca“ i 16 posto „trumpovaca“ uključilo bi se u ulične nemire i nasilne izraze javnog nezadovoljstva izgubi li njihov politički favorit.

Dužnosnici zaduženi za izbore u SAD-u već se tradicionalno nose s nizom izazova vezanih za nepovjerenje javnosti u izborni rezultat, no ove je godine takva atmosfera očito na vrhuncu. Na prošlim izborima fokus je bio na ruskim pokušajima upliva, kojih ne nedostaje ni ove godine: najviše rangirani ljudi u sigurnosnim agencijama upozorili su prošlog tjedna na ponovne opasnosti od Rusije i Irana koji su pokušali računalno provaliti u američki glasački sustav.

Sam Donald Trump je, pak, također više puta podgrijao juhu i verbalno doveo u pitanje integritet američkih izbora, tvrdeći da je više nego izgledno kako je ovogodišnji proces „unaprijed namješten" protiv njega. Uporno je, bez ikakvih dokaza, tvrdio i da će rapidan porast broja dopisnih glasača ove godine povećati vjerojatnost prijevare, te se odbio obvezati na miran prijenos vlasti ako prebrojavanje glasova pokaže da je izgubio.

Politolog sa sveučilišta Columbia Donald Green komentirao je kako je utješno što rezultati zadnje ankete ipak svjedoče o malom broju iznimno radikalnih građana koji su spremni sudjelovati u mogućem postizbornom nasilju. No, upozorio je kako bi u slučaju tijesnog rezultata ili vjerodostojno razotkrivenog pokušaja prijevare birača ipak moglo doći do širega uličnog nezadovoljstva. Mnogi ljudi koji su Trumpovi neistomišljenici zasad zadržavaju dah i nadaju se poštenom ishodu, upozorava Green, no neprihvaćanje očitog poraza moglo bi im itekako probuditi i produbiti gnjev.

Zadnja anketa Reutersa i Ipsosa o izbornom rejtingu dvojice rivala pokazuje kako Biden vodi Trumpa za 8 postotaka na nacionalnoj razini: 51% vjerojatnih glasača kaže da podržava demokratskog izazivača, dok 43% njih glasa za aktualnog predsjednika. Biden uvjerljivo vodi u Wisconsinu i Michiganu, ali se čini da utrka postaje sve tješnja u ostalim odlučujućim državama izbornoga bojišta: primarno Pennsylvaniji, Floridi, Arizoni i Sjevernoj Karolini.

Prema ranijim izvještajima sigurnosnih agencija, opasnost od rušilaštva u postizbornim nemirima u SAD-u ipak najviše prijeti od krajnje desničarskih milicija poput Proud Boysa i pokreta Boogaloo, koje je svojim izbornim izjavama otvoreno ohrabrivao Donald Trump. On je s govornica u nekoliko navrata pozivao pristaše da "iziđu na birališta i gledaju vrlo pažljivo na sve krađe i pljačke", što je fraza koju sigurnosni stručnjaci tumače kao predsjednikov poziv na uzimanje oružja i patroliranje biračkim mjestima.                                        

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Morry Gash/AFP
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Najnovija anketa Reutersa i agencije Ipsos: gotovo polovica Trumpovih i Bidenovih birača nespremna prihvatiti poraz svog kandidata

Piše Davor Krile
26. listopada 2020. - 13:59
15065466
PREMIUM
Morry Gash/AFP

Od deset prosječnih birača Donalda Trumpa i njegovog demokratskog izazivača Joea Bidena više od četvorice neće prihvatiti rezultate predsjedničkih izbora u studenome ako njihov preferirani kandidat izgubi, pokazuje najnovija anketa Reutersa i agencije Ipsos.

Istraživanje provedeno koncem listopada pokazuje kako 43 posto Bidenovih pristaša nije spremno prihvatiti Trumpovu pobjedu, dok 41 posto Amerikanaca koji žele još jedan Trumpov mandat ne bi prihvatilo Bidenovu pobjedu. U ovom sumraku demokratske kulture i (post)izborne tolerancije utješno je tek da su puno manji dijelovi američkog elektorata spremni poduzeti radikalne poteze kako bi demonstrirali svoje nezadovoljstvo: samo 22 posto „bidenovaca“ i 16 posto „trumpovaca“ uključilo bi se u ulične nemire i nasilne izraze javnog nez...

#IZBORI SAD#DONALD TRUMP#JOE BIDEN
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