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stdClass Object ( [id] => 1171648 [title] => Stručnjak za geopolitiku: ‘Zabrinutost na Balkanu je velika. Moguće je da Putin iskoristi situaciju i partnere u regiji iskoristi za dodatnu destabilizaciju‘ [alias] => strucnjak-za-geopolitiku-zabrinutos-na-balkanu-je-velika-moguce-je-da-putin-iskoristi-situaciju-i-da-partnere-u-regiji-iskoristi-za-dodatnu-destabilizaciju [catid] => 245 [published] => 1 [introtext] => [fulltext] =>

Stručnjak za geopolitiku Vlatko Cvrtila komentirao je rat u Ukrajini.

Od pregovora se i nije puno očekivalo, ali ipak su izaslanstva sjela za zajednički stol, ali Cvrtila kaže da je začuđujuće da je do pregovora uopće došlo nakon samo nekoliko dana ratnog stanja.

"Na početku nisu bile poznate pozicije Rusije, koje je tek kasnije Putin jasno izrazio. Ukrajina je rekla svoje, najprije kraj paljbe, a onda pregovori. Putin je ponovio svoje stare sigurnosne zahtjeve koji su u ovom trenutku neprovedivi", kaže Cvrtila za RTL.

Geopolitički stručnjak smatra da će se pregovori nastaviti već u ovom tjednu, ali i rat. "Svaki rat drugačije završava. Ili porazom branitelja ili agresora ili kroz dogovore, tj. mirovno rješenje. U ovome trenutku ni jedno ni drugo ni treće nije na vidiku", objašnjava Cvrtila.

Je li Zapad nakon početne suzdržanosti ipak ispravno reagirao?

Kada se gledalo zadnjih nekoliko tjedana, stvarno je bilo nevjerojatno da će netko pokrenuti ovakav tip rata, zato je to bio veliki šok, ističe Cvrtila, ponajviše za Zapad i Europsku uniju. Sankcije za Rusiju koje su prvotno donesene nisu bile prestroge, no nakon 24 sata donesene su znatno strože sankcije, a već danas imamo zabrane za koje neki analitičari nisu mislili da su uopće moguće.

Putin je očito podcijenio zapadne sile, tvrdi Cvrtila i dodaje da Europska unija nikada nije bila onaj politički akter koji je bio ujedinjeni i čvrstoga stava. "Sada ne samo da je učinila ekonomske sankcije nego prvi put pruža izravnu vojnu pomoć i jedna neutralna Švedska."

"Putin je uveo u priču atomsko naoružanje. Ta najava je bila vezana uz ove pregovore i trebala je biti dodatni pritisak na Ukrajinu i na zapadne države koje su počele ozbiljno pomagati", objašnjava stručnjak i dodaje da bi teško bilo opravdati bilo kakvim razlogom nuklearno naoružanje. "Ako to učinite, to bi bio kraj ove civilizacije", ističe Cvrtila.

Postoji li realna opasnost da se rat prelije na Balkan?

Vidjeli smo da Srbija nije uvela sankcije Rusiji, što zapravo nije iznenađenje. Svjedočimo da Aleksandar Vučić sjedi na dvije stolice, i na onoj u Bruxellesu i, s druge strane, u Moskvi.

"Tome će doći kraj kada Rusija bude bila maksimalno izolirana i kada Vučić ne bude imao izbora. On sada ima izbora, a taj izbor će biti utemeljen na svim onim ekonomskim vezama koje on ima s Rusijom. Kada bi on sada nešto napravio suprotno interesima Rusije, onda bi morali plaćati ekonomsku cijenu plina, a to mu sada sigurno ne odgovora jer je pred izborima", pojašnjava Cvrtila.

"Njegova promjena politike bi bila neka vrsta samoubojstva pred izbore", naglašava Cvrtila.

"Mi znamo da na Balkanu postoji interes jedne i druge strane i postoji mogućnost da u jednom trenutku Putin iskoristi situaciju i da partnere u regiji iskoristi za dodatnu destabilizaciju. Da je zabrinutost velika, potvrđuje činjenica da je EUFOR odlučio u Bosnu i Hercegovinu poslati još 500 vojnika kao neko dodatno osiguranje", tvrdi Cvrtila.

"Ovo je i poruka političkim akterima unutar BiH", kaže Cvrtila za RTL.

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Moguće je da Putin iskoristi situaciju i partnere u regiji iskoristi za dodatnu destabilizaciju‘ [num_of_authors] => 0 [author] => Joomla\CMS\User\User Object ( [isRoot:protected] => [id] => 3112 [name] => Divna Zenić Rak [username] => divna-zeni-rak [email] => divna-zeni-rak@sd.hr [password] => $2y$10$tqT1tH/eC1RIr51RXJHmQeV1OtaJQrcAlkttNeawB7Um36D1oksm. 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Stručnjak za geopolitiku Vlatko Cvrtila komentirao je rat u Ukrajini.

Od pregovora se i nije puno očekivalo, ali ipak su izaslanstva sjela za zajednički stol, ali Cvrtila kaže da je začuđujuće da je do pregovora uopće došlo nakon samo nekoliko dana ratnog stanja.

"Na početku nisu bile poznate pozicije Rusije, koje je tek kasnije Putin jasno izrazio. Ukrajina je rekla svoje, najprije kraj paljbe, a onda pregovori. Putin je ponovio svoje stare sigurnosne zahtjeve koji su u ovom trenutku neprovedivi", kaže Cvrtila za RTL.

Geopolitički stručnjak smatra da će se pregovori nastaviti već u ovom tjednu, ali i rat. "Svaki rat drugačije završava. Ili porazom branitelja ili agresora ili kroz dogovore, tj. mirovno rješenje. U ovome trenutku ni jedno ni drugo ni treće nije na vidiku", objašnjava Cvrtila.

Je li Zapad nakon početne suzdržanosti ipak ispravno reagirao?

Kada se gledalo zadnjih nekoliko tjedana, stvarno je bilo nevjerojatno da će netko pokrenuti ovakav tip rata, zato je to bio veliki šok, ističe Cvrtila, ponajviše za Zapad i Europsku uniju. Sankcije za Rusiju koje su prvotno donesene nisu bile prestroge, no nakon 24 sata donesene su znatno strože sankcije, a već danas imamo zabrane za koje neki analitičari nisu mislili da su uopće moguće.

Putin je očito podcijenio zapadne sile, tvrdi Cvrtila i dodaje da Europska unija nikada nije bila onaj politički akter koji je bio ujedinjeni i čvrstoga stava. "Sada ne samo da je učinila ekonomske sankcije nego prvi put pruža izravnu vojnu pomoć i jedna neutralna Švedska."

"Putin je uveo u priču atomsko naoružanje. Ta najava je bila vezana uz ove pregovore i trebala je biti dodatni pritisak na Ukrajinu i na zapadne države koje su počele ozbiljno pomagati", objašnjava stručnjak i dodaje da bi teško bilo opravdati bilo kakvim razlogom nuklearno naoružanje. "Ako to učinite, to bi bio kraj ove civilizacije", ističe Cvrtila.

Postoji li realna opasnost da se rat prelije na Balkan?

Vidjeli smo da Srbija nije uvela sankcije Rusiji, što zapravo nije iznenađenje. Svjedočimo da Aleksandar Vučić sjedi na dvije stolice, i na onoj u Bruxellesu i, s druge strane, u Moskvi.

"Tome će doći kraj kada Rusija bude bila maksimalno izolirana i kada Vučić ne bude imao izbora. On sada ima izbora, a taj izbor će biti utemeljen na svim onim ekonomskim vezama koje on ima s Rusijom. Kada bi on sada nešto napravio suprotno interesima Rusije, onda bi morali plaćati ekonomsku cijenu plina, a to mu sada sigurno ne odgovora jer je pred izborima", pojašnjava Cvrtila.

"Njegova promjena politike bi bila neka vrsta samoubojstva pred izbore", naglašava Cvrtila.

"Mi znamo da na Balkanu postoji interes jedne i druge strane i postoji mogućnost da u jednom trenutku Putin iskoristi situaciju i da partnere u regiji iskoristi za dodatnu destabilizaciju. Da je zabrinutost velika, potvrđuje činjenica da je EUFOR odlučio u Bosnu i Hercegovinu poslati još 500 vojnika kao neko dodatno osiguranje", tvrdi Cvrtila.

"Ovo je i poruka političkim akterima unutar BiH", kaže Cvrtila za RTL.

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Ronald Goršić/Cropix
Ronald Goršić/Cropix
Vlatko Cvrtila
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Regijarealna opasnost?

Stručnjak za geopolitiku: ‘Zabrinutost na Balkanu je velika. Moguće je da Putin iskoristi situaciju i partnere u regiji iskoristi za dodatnu destabilizaciju‘

Piše PSD
28. veljače 2022. - 23:25
Vlatko Cvrtila
PREMIUM
Vlatko CvrtilaRonald Goršić/Cropix

Stručnjak za geopolitiku Vlatko Cvrtila komentirao je rat u Ukrajini.

Od pregovora se i nije puno očekivalo, ali ipak su izaslanstva sjela za zajednički stol, ali Cvrtila kaže da je začuđujuće da je do pregovora uopće došlo nakon samo nekoliko dana ratnog stanja.

"Na početku nisu bile poznate pozicije Rusije, koje je tek kasnije Putin jasno izrazio. Ukrajina je rekla svoje, najprije kraj paljbe, a onda pregovori. Putin je ponovio svoje stare sigurnosne zahtjeve koji su u ovom trenutku neprovedivi", kaže Cvrtila za RTL.

Geopolitički stručnjak smatra da će se pregovori nastaviti već u ovom tjednu, ali i rat. "Svaki rat drugačije završava. Ili porazom branitelja ili agresora ili kroz dogovore, tj. mirovno rješenje. U ovome trenutku ni jedno ni drugo ni treće nije na vidiku", objaš...

#INVAZIJA NA UKRAJINU#VLATKO CVRTILA
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13. svibanj 2024 05:33