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[title] => Perišić na 70 posto, a De Gea bliži Hajduku nego Al Nassru. Što stoji u pozadini često bizarnih procjena Transfermarkta?
[alias] => perisic-na-70-posto-a-de-gea-blizi-hajduku-nego-al-nassru-sto-stoji-u-pozadini-cesto-bizarnih-procjena-transfermarkta
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Transfermarkt je jedan od najpopularnijih specijaliziranih sportskih portala na svijetu. Web stranica koja se prvenstveno bavi procjenama tržišne vrijednosti nogometaša tijekom godina se etablirala kao najrelevantniji izvor za to, ali i za informacije o karijerama igrača.
Ipak, rijetko se dogodi da klub za nekog igrača plati onoliko koliko iznosi njegova vrijednost na TM-u, a i neke druge informacije znaju ne biti baš najtočnije.
Posljednjih tjedana navijači Hajduka pobožno prate postotak vjerojatnosti dolaska Ivana Perišića (koji u trenutku pisanja ovog teksta iznosi 70 posto), a jučer je kao bomba odjeknulo to što je Transfermarkt kao najvjerojatnije odredište Davida De Gee naveo Hajduk. Prema njima, šanse za taj transfer u jednom su trenutku iznosile čak 51 posto.
Nakon takve bizarne gluposti, logično je postaviti pitanje koji se vrag dogodio i što stoji iza tih procjena vjerojatnosti transfera...
Prije svega, treba znati da Transfermarkt nema apsolutno nikakve insajderske informacije o vjerojatnosti da se neki transfer realizira, već se taj postotak temelji na medijskim člancima o toj temi, odnosno njihovoj vjerodostojnosti i količini. Njihovi "eksperti" tada procjenjuju koliko su te glasine istinite.
O tome tko su ti eksperti, bit će govora malo kasnije...
Dakle, u slučaju Perišića, Transfermarkt se vodi onom objavom Gianluce Di Marzija još od 6. srpnja i praktički svim člancima koji su nastali na temelju informacije koju je Talijan pustio u eter. To znači da u nekom smislu postotak raste što se više tekstova objavi, iako se svi oni temelje na jednoj informaciji.
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Vjerodostojnost tog postotka preispitana je i u sjajnom videu kojim je Hajduk prošli tjedan predstavio Ismaëla Dialla. U njemu vidimo komentatora HDTV-a Igora Ćurkovića kako scrolla po Transfermarktu dok Diallo sjedi pored njega i pokazuje Bjelokošćaninu kako su šanse za njegov dolazak među Bijele 67 posto.
Dakle, TM je procijenio da su veće šanse da u Hajduk dođe Perišić nego čovjek koji je već potpisao i koji sjedi na Poljudu u Hajdukovom dresu.
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I sada dolazimo do jučerašnje "informacije" da je De Gea blizu Hajduka... Čovjek koji je ne tako davno smatran jednim od najboljih vratara na svijetu i koji je posljednjih 12 godina proveo u Manchester Unitedu, prema Transfermarktu je imao 51 posto šanse da dođe u Hajduk, dok je Al Nassr bio na 42 posto.
U jednom trenutku se činilo kao da ni stotine saudijskih milijuna neće moći odvratiti De Geu od toga da napokon zaigra na Poljudu i pomogne Hajduku doći do titule, a onda su počela razmišljanja treba li Španjolca uopće dovoditi s obzirom na to da je Ivan Lučić u formi, a kapetan Lovre Kalinić se brzo vraća. Bilo mi malo glupo nagovoriti čovjeka da odbije saudijske milijune i dođe u Hajduk sjediti na klupi...
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Naravno, nitko tu (dez)informaciju nije shvatio ozbiljno, ali postotak vjerojatnosti transfera De Gee u Hajduk postavio je jedan od Transfermarktovih "eksperata", točnije profil po imenu "Luksi" kojemu je to bila prva objava na TM-u. Odnosno, nije poznato je li taj Luksi "ekspert" ili je neki drugi "ekspert" donio presudu o postotku vjerojatnosti na temelju Luksijeve objave, ali brojka je skočila na 51 posto.
Da stvar bude bizarnija, Luksi je svoju špekulaciju temeljio na tekstu objavljenom na portalu Slobodne Dalmacije, što se može vidjeti iz priloženog screenshota. Riječ je o vijesti prenesenoj s Hine naslova „Španjolac David De Gea nakon 12 godina napušta Old Trafford: ‘Sad je pravo vrijeme za prihvaćanje novih izazova‘”, u kojoj se u nijednom dijelu ne spominje ni Hajduk, ni ikakva druga potencijalna destinacija za Španjolca.
S druge strane, onih 42 posto za Al Nassr (koji su u međuvremenu pali na 37 posto) temeljili su se na člancima iz Al Jazeere, Mirrora i drugih medija koji su zaista pisali o interesu saudijskog kluba za De Geine usluge.
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Ali Luksi je barem stavio nekakav link, dok je ranije danas korisnik pod nadimkom "JackieChan" sam napisao tekst o tome kako je Xavi Simmons na pragu prelaska u Hajduk, a Transfermarkt je u jednom trenutku vjerojatnost tog transfera držao na 100 posto. Kasnije je to palo na 60 posto, jer se valjda ispostavilo kako ipak nije toliko sigurno da će PSV-ova 20-godišnja zvijezda vrijedna 40 milijuna eura (prema TM-u) doći na Poljud.
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Dakle, zaključak je da je Transfermarkt koristan portal s ogromnom bazom podataka, ali puno stvari na njemu treba uzimati s rezervom. Između ostaloga i ono po čemu je stranica najpoznatija - vrijednosti igrača.
Analiza portala Follow the Money pokazala je da se TM-ova procijenjena vrijednost igrača u prosjeku razlikuje oko 60 posto od iznosa koji zaista bude plaćen za njih. Kada su u pitanju transferi veći od 10 milijuna eura, Transfermarkt griješi u procjeni u prosjeku 34 posto, a polovica svih navedenih vrijednosti pokaže se manjom o stvarne vrijednosti transfera.
A što se tiče tih vjerojatnosti transfera, iz ova tri navedena primjera možete i sami zaključiti koliko su one (ne)pouzdane.
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title=Perišić na 70 posto, a De Gea bliži Hajduku nego Al Nassru. Što stoji u pozadini često bizarnih procjena Transfermarkta?
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Transfermarkt je jedan od najpopularnijih specijaliziranih sportskih portala na svijetu. Web stranica koja se prvenstveno bavi procjenama tržišne vrijednosti nogometaša tijekom godina se etablirala kao najrelevantniji izvor za to, ali i za informacije o karijerama igrača.
Ipak, rijetko se dogodi da klub za nekog igrača plati onoliko koliko iznosi njegova vrijednost na TM-u, a i neke druge informacije znaju ne biti baš najtočnije.
Posljednjih tjedana navijači Hajduka pobožno prate postotak vjerojatnosti dolaska Ivana Perišića (koji u trenutku pisanja ovog teksta iznosi 70 posto), a jučer je kao bomba odjeknulo to što je Transfermarkt kao najvjerojatnije odredište Davida De Gee naveo Hajduk. Prema njima, šanse za taj transfer u jednom su trenutku iznosile čak 51 posto.
Nakon takve bizarne gluposti, logično je postaviti pitanje koji se vrag dogodio i što stoji iza tih procjena vjerojatnosti transfera...
Prije svega, treba znati da Transfermarkt nema apsolutno nikakve insajderske informacije o vjerojatnosti da se neki transfer realizira, već se taj postotak temelji na medijskim člancima o toj temi, odnosno njihovoj vjerodostojnosti i količini. Njihovi "eksperti" tada procjenjuju koliko su te glasine istinite.
O tome tko su ti eksperti, bit će govora malo kasnije...
Dakle, u slučaju Perišića, Transfermarkt se vodi onom objavom Gianluce Di Marzija još od 6. srpnja i praktički svim člancima koji su nastali na temelju informacije koju je Talijan pustio u eter. To znači da u nekom smislu postotak raste što se više tekstova objavi, iako se svi oni temelje na jednoj informaciji.
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Vjerodostojnost tog postotka preispitana je i u sjajnom videu kojim je Hajduk prošli tjedan predstavio Ismaëla Dialla. U njemu vidimo komentatora HDTV-a Igora Ćurkovića kako scrolla po Transfermarktu dok Diallo sjedi pored njega i pokazuje Bjelokošćaninu kako su šanse za njegov dolazak među Bijele 67 posto.
Dakle, TM je procijenio da su veće šanse da u Hajduk dođe Perišić nego čovjek koji je već potpisao i koji sjedi na Poljudu u Hajdukovom dresu.
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I sada dolazimo do jučerašnje "informacije" da je De Gea blizu Hajduka... Čovjek koji je ne tako davno smatran jednim od najboljih vratara na svijetu i koji je posljednjih 12 godina proveo u Manchester Unitedu, prema Transfermarktu je imao 51 posto šanse da dođe u Hajduk, dok je Al Nassr bio na 42 posto.
U jednom trenutku se činilo kao da ni stotine saudijskih milijuna neće moći odvratiti De Geu od toga da napokon zaigra na Poljudu i pomogne Hajduku doći do titule, a onda su počela razmišljanja treba li Španjolca uopće dovoditi s obzirom na to da je Ivan Lučić u formi, a kapetan Lovre Kalinić se brzo vraća. Bilo mi malo glupo nagovoriti čovjeka da odbije saudijske milijune i dođe u Hajduk sjediti na klupi...
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Naravno, nitko tu (dez)informaciju nije shvatio ozbiljno, ali postotak vjerojatnosti transfera De Gee u Hajduk postavio je jedan od Transfermarktovih "eksperata", točnije profil po imenu "Luksi" kojemu je to bila prva objava na TM-u. Odnosno, nije poznato je li taj Luksi "ekspert" ili je neki drugi "ekspert" donio presudu o postotku vjerojatnosti na temelju Luksijeve objave, ali brojka je skočila na 51 posto.
Da stvar bude bizarnija, Luksi je svoju špekulaciju temeljio na tekstu objavljenom na portalu Slobodne Dalmacije, što se može vidjeti iz priloženog screenshota. Riječ je o vijesti prenesenoj s Hine naslova „Španjolac David De Gea nakon 12 godina napušta Old Trafford: ‘Sad je pravo vrijeme za prihvaćanje novih izazova‘”, u kojoj se u nijednom dijelu ne spominje ni Hajduk, ni ikakva druga potencijalna destinacija za Španjolca.
S druge strane, onih 42 posto za Al Nassr (koji su u međuvremenu pali na 37 posto) temeljili su se na člancima iz Al Jazeere, Mirrora i drugih medija koji su zaista pisali o interesu saudijskog kluba za De Geine usluge.
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Ali Luksi je barem stavio nekakav link, dok je ranije danas korisnik pod nadimkom "JackieChan" sam napisao tekst o tome kako je Xavi Simmons na pragu prelaska u Hajduk, a Transfermarkt je u jednom trenutku vjerojatnost tog transfera držao na 100 posto. Kasnije je to palo na 60 posto, jer se valjda ispostavilo kako ipak nije toliko sigurno da će PSV-ova 20-godišnja zvijezda vrijedna 40 milijuna eura (prema TM-u) doći na Poljud.
---
---
---
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Dakle, zaključak je da je Transfermarkt koristan portal s ogromnom bazom podataka, ali puno stvari na njemu treba uzimati s rezervom. Između ostaloga i ono po čemu je stranica najpoznatija - vrijednosti igrača.
Analiza portala Follow the Money pokazala je da se TM-ova procijenjena vrijednost igrača u prosjeku razlikuje oko 60 posto od iznosa koji zaista bude plaćen za njih. Kada su u pitanju transferi veći od 10 milijuna eura, Transfermarkt griješi u procjeni u prosjeku 34 posto, a polovica svih navedenih vrijednosti pokaže se manjom o stvarne vrijednosti transfera.
A što se tiče tih vjerojatnosti transfera, iz ova tri navedena primjera možete i sami zaključiti koliko su one (ne)pouzdane.
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[alias] => promo
)
[8] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 67
[name] => Contains video
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 9
[alias] => contains_video
)
[9] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 68
[name] => Premium content
[value] => ON
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 10
[alias] => premium_content
)
[10] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 69
[name] => Exclude comments
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 11
[alias] => exclude_comments
)
[11] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 70
[name] => Open link in new window
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 12
[alias] => open_link_in_new_window
)
[12] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 71
[name] => Horizontal crop of the main photo
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 13
[alias] => horizontal_crop_of_the_main_photo
)
[13] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 73
[name] => No-index
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 15
[alias] => no_index
)
[14] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 74
[name] => No-cache
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 16
[alias] => no_cache
)
[15] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 77
[name] => Don't show on the front page
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 17
[alias] => dont_show_on_the_front_page
)
[16] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 78
[name] => Related on bottom
[value] => ON
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 18
[alias] => related_on_bottom
)
[17] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 79
[name] => Live button
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 19
[alias] => live_button
)
[26] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 87
[name] => Instant articles
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 28
[alias] => instant_articles
)
[27] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 91
[name] => S preporučuje
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 29
[alias] => s_preporucuje
)
[28] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 92
[name] => S voli
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 30
[alias] => s_voli
)
[29] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 93
[name] => Layout with three photos
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 31
[alias] => layout_with_three_photos
)
[30] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 94
[name] => Gallery in the article
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 32
[alias] => gallery_in_the_article
)
[31] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 95
[name] => Required views
[value] => 0
[type] => textfield
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 33
[alias] => required_views
)
[32] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 96
[name] => FullHD image
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 34
[alias] => fullhd_image
)
[33] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 97
[name] => City Select
[value] => (0)
[type] => select
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 35
[alias] => CitySelect
)
[34] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 98
[name] => Paid Article
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 36
[alias] => paid_article
)
[35] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 99
[name] => SD na licu mjesta
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 37
[alias] => SD_na_licu_mjesta
)
)
15. svibanj 2024 09:51
