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Vjerojatnost da će se dogoditi ovaj iznimno loš scenarij povećava se sa svakim gramom CO2 koji unesemo u atmosferu, kažu stručnjaci, piše Jutarnji list.

Novo istraživanje klimatskih znanstvenika pokazalo je da se Golfska struja opasno "gasi" - već sad se, naime, nalazi na najsporijoj točki u zadnjih 1600 godina, a najnovija analiza ukazuje i na uznemirujuću činjenicu da se struja možda približava i svom konačnom nestanku.

- U prošlome stoljeću otkrili smo značajan gubitak stabilnosti AMOC-a, sjevernoatlantske meridijalne cirkulacije, velikog sustava oceanskih struja, uključujući Golfsku struju, koja prenosi toplu vodu iz tropskih krajeva prema sjeveru Atlantika - upozoravaju stručnjaci. Inače, AMOC pokreće gusta, slana morska voda, no topljenje slatke vode s ledene ploče Grenlanda znatno usporava spomenuto strujanje - štoviše, taj proces događa se puno ranije nego što su ga klimatski modeli sugerirali.

Urušavanje sistema Golfske struje imalo bi katastrofalne posljedice za cijeli svijet - to bi pomaknulo monsune prema Južnoj Americi i Zapadnoj Africi te ugrozilo milijarde ljudi, uzrokovalo bi sve veće oluje i snižavanje temperatura u Europi, ali i povišenje razine mora na istoku SAD-a. Također bi se dodatno ugrozile amazonska prašuma i antarktičke ledene ploče.

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image
AFP
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Zasad je nemoguće predvidjeti datum ovakvog kolapsa - to se može desiti za desetljeće ili dva ili pak nekoliko stoljeća. No jedno je sigurno - zbog loših posljedica na svijet općenito, takav scenarij treba spriječiti pod svaku cijenu, ističu znanstvenici.

- Znakovi destabilizacije koji su već vidljivi čine mi se zastrašujućima... To je nešto što jednostavno ne možemo dopustiti da se dogodi. Ne zna se koja bi razina CO2 izazvala kolaps Golfske struje, ali moramo učiniti sve što možemo da emisije budu što manje. Vjerojatnost da će se dogoditi ovaj iznimno loš scenarij povećava se sa svakim gramom CO2 koji unesemo u atmosferu - rekao je Niklas Boers s potsdamskog Instituta za istraživanje utjecaja na klimu u Njemačkoj, a prenosi The Guardian.

Analizirajući modele temperature i saliniteta površine Atlantskog oceana, njegova studija kaže da bi se slabljenje AMOC-a u prošlome stoljeću moglo povezati s gubitkom stabilnosti.

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image
Chelsea Palmer/AFP
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- Gubitak dinamičke stabilnosti ukazivao bi da se AMOC približio kritičnome pragu iza kojega bi moglo doći do značajnog i u praksi vjerojatno nepovratnog prijelaza u slabiji "mod" rada. Rezultati podupiru procjenu da opadanje AMOC-a nije samo fluktuacija ili linearni odgovor na rastuće temperature, nego vjerojatno znači približavanje kritičnog praga iza kojega bi se sustav cirkulacije mogao urušiti - rekao je Boers.

Znanstvenici već neko vrijeme upozoravaju kako su klimatske promjene postale egzistencijalna prijetnja civilizaciji. Boers i njegovi kolege izvijestili su u svibnju da je značajan dio ledene grenlandske ploče već na rubu i mogao bi uzrokovati drastičan porast globalne razine mora. Drugo istraživanje nedavno je pokazalo da amazonska prašuma već sad emitira više CO2 nego što ga apsorbira, a sibirski toplinski val 2020. doveo je do zabrinjavajućeg ispuštanja metana.

- Ovi znakovi smanjenja stabilnosti AMOC-a zabrinjavaju, ali još uvijek ne znamo hoće li doći do kolapsa ili koliko smo blizu toga - rekao je David Thornalley sa Sveučilišta London u Velikoj Britaniji, čiji je rad pokazao da je AMOC najslabiji u 1600 godina.

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Vjerojatnost da će se dogoditi ovaj iznimno loš scenarij povećava se sa svakim gramom CO2 koji unesemo u atmosferu, kažu stručnjaci, piše Jutarnji list.

Novo istraživanje klimatskih znanstvenika pokazalo je da se Golfska struja opasno "gasi" - već sad se, naime, nalazi na najsporijoj točki u zadnjih 1600 godina, a najnovija analiza ukazuje i na uznemirujuću činjenicu da se struja možda približava i svom konačnom nestanku.

- U prošlome stoljeću otkrili smo značajan gubitak stabilnosti AMOC-a, sjevernoatlantske meridijalne cirkulacije, velikog sustava oceanskih struja, uključujući Golfsku struju, koja prenosi toplu vodu iz tropskih krajeva prema sjeveru Atlantika - upozoravaju stručnjaci. Inače, AMOC pokreće gusta, slana morska voda, no topljenje slatke vode s ledene ploče Grenlanda znatno usporava spomenuto strujanje - štoviše, taj proces događa se puno ranije nego što su ga klimatski modeli sugerirali.

Urušavanje sistema Golfske struje imalo bi katastrofalne posljedice za cijeli svijet - to bi pomaknulo monsune prema Južnoj Americi i Zapadnoj Africi te ugrozilo milijarde ljudi, uzrokovalo bi sve veće oluje i snižavanje temperatura u Europi, ali i povišenje razine mora na istoku SAD-a. Također bi se dodatno ugrozile amazonska prašuma i antarktičke ledene ploče.

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AFP
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Zasad je nemoguće predvidjeti datum ovakvog kolapsa - to se može desiti za desetljeće ili dva ili pak nekoliko stoljeća. No jedno je sigurno - zbog loših posljedica na svijet općenito, takav scenarij treba spriječiti pod svaku cijenu, ističu znanstvenici.

- Znakovi destabilizacije koji su već vidljivi čine mi se zastrašujućima... To je nešto što jednostavno ne možemo dopustiti da se dogodi. Ne zna se koja bi razina CO2 izazvala kolaps Golfske struje, ali moramo učiniti sve što možemo da emisije budu što manje. Vjerojatnost da će se dogoditi ovaj iznimno loš scenarij povećava se sa svakim gramom CO2 koji unesemo u atmosferu - rekao je Niklas Boers s potsdamskog Instituta za istraživanje utjecaja na klimu u Njemačkoj, a prenosi The Guardian.

Analizirajući modele temperature i saliniteta površine Atlantskog oceana, njegova studija kaže da bi se slabljenje AMOC-a u prošlome stoljeću moglo povezati s gubitkom stabilnosti.

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Chelsea Palmer/AFP
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- Gubitak dinamičke stabilnosti ukazivao bi da se AMOC približio kritičnome pragu iza kojega bi moglo doći do značajnog i u praksi vjerojatno nepovratnog prijelaza u slabiji "mod" rada. Rezultati podupiru procjenu da opadanje AMOC-a nije samo fluktuacija ili linearni odgovor na rastuće temperature, nego vjerojatno znači približavanje kritičnog praga iza kojega bi se sustav cirkulacije mogao urušiti - rekao je Boers.

Znanstvenici već neko vrijeme upozoravaju kako su klimatske promjene postale egzistencijalna prijetnja civilizaciji. Boers i njegovi kolege izvijestili su u svibnju da je značajan dio ledene grenlandske ploče već na rubu i mogao bi uzrokovati drastičan porast globalne razine mora. Drugo istraživanje nedavno je pokazalo da amazonska prašuma već sad emitira više CO2 nego što ga apsorbira, a sibirski toplinski val 2020. doveo je do zabrinjavajućeg ispuštanja metana.

- Ovi znakovi smanjenja stabilnosti AMOC-a zabrinjavaju, ali još uvijek ne znamo hoće li doći do kolapsa ili koliko smo blizu toga - rekao je David Thornalley sa Sveučilišta London u Velikoj Britaniji, čiji je rad pokazao da je AMOC najslabiji u 1600 godina.

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Handout/AFP AFP Chelsea Palmer/AFP
AFP
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PanoramaEkološki kolaps

Golfska struja se gasi puno brže od ranijih predviđanja: posljedice će biti katastrofalne, na udaru će se naći i Europa

Piše JL, Hina
6. kolovoza 2021. - 08:34

Vjerojatnost da će se dogoditi ovaj iznimno loš scenarij povećava se sa svakim gramom CO2 koji unesemo u atmosferu, kažu stručnjaci, piše Jutarnji list.

Novo istraživanje klimatskih znanstvenika pokazalo je da se Golfska struja opasno "gasi" - već sad se, naime, nalazi na najsporijoj točki u zadnjih 1600 godina, a najnovija analiza ukazuje i na uznemirujuću činjenicu da se struja možda približava i svom konačnom nestanku.

- U prošlome stoljeću otkrili smo značajan gubitak stabilnosti AMOC-a, sjevernoatlantske meridijalne cirkulacije, velikog sustava oceanskih struja, uključujući Golfsku struju, koja prenosi toplu vodu iz tropskih krajeva prema sjeveru Atlantika - upozoravaju stručnjaci. Inače, AMOC pokreće gusta, slana morska voda, no topljenje slatke vode s ledene ploče Gre...

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12. svibanj 2024 19:00