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stdClass Object ( [id] => 1191015 [title] => Kakvu će poruku Putin uputiti iz Moskve? Tri su moguća scenarija: ‘Uz objavu rata i mobilizaciju, moglo bi se očekivati uvođenje izvanrednog stanjau cijeloj Rusiji‘ [alias] => kakvu-ce-poruku-putin-uputiti-iz-moskve-tri-su-moguca-scenarija-uz-objavu-rata-i-mobilizaciju-moglo-bi-se-ocekivati-uvodenje-izvanrednog-stanjau-cijeloj-rusiji [catid] => 241 [published] => 1 [introtext] => [fulltext] =>

Danas, u ponedjeljak, 9. svibnja, održat će se tradicionalna vojna parada povodom Dana pobjede u Moskvi. Parada nad koju se nadvila stigma agresije na Ukrajinu, neovisnu, suverenu zemlju u kojoj su ruske snage počinile zločine, izazvale bijeg pet milijuna ljudi, porušile gradove, poubijale brojne civile.

"Zlo se vratilo. Opet!" rekao je ukrajinski predsjednik Volodimir Zelenski u nedjelju, povodom Dana pobjede kada Europa obilježava službenu predaju Njemačke saveznicima u Drugom svjetskom ratu. "U drugom obliku, pod drugim sloganima, ali u istu svrhu." Rekao je da će Ukrajina i njezine saveznice pobijediti. "Nijedno zlo ne može pobjeći od odgovornosti, ne može se sakriti u bunker", dodao je.

Gatanje kremljologa

"Danas se naši vojnici, kao i njihovi preci, bore rame uz rame za oslobođenje svoje domovine od nacističke prljavštine, uvjereni da će, kao i 1945., pobjeda biti naša", rekao je ruski predsjednik Vladimir Putin u poruci upućenoj u nedjelju stanovnicima zemalja bivšega sovjetskog bloka.

Dok je svijet bio fokusiran na moguće poruke. Sve je potaknula priča da Putin želi, kad već nije uspio u tri dana, rat, "specijalnu vojnu operaciju" kako ga zovu u Moskvi, završiti do 9. svibnja kako bi mogao proglasiti novu pobjedu nad nacizmom. U Ukrajini. Budući da se to, na sreću, zahvaljujući ukrajinskoj obrani, nije ostvarilo, pojavila se priča da bi mogao iskoristiti paradu da najavi nove vojne planove. Ako je vjerovati Bloombergu, to neće biti prekid opskrbe Europe plinom jer je Gazprom, prenosi agencija, europskim kupcima poslao pismo s tumačenjem da mogu nastaviti plaćati bez kršenja sankcija, ruskih ili europskih.

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Sefa Karacan/AFP
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Gatalo se u svim analitičkim centrima pa se iskristaliziralo nekoliko poruka koje su se očekivale. Jedna je najava mobilizacije uz najavu općeg rata Ukrajini.

- Proglašavanje mobilizacije učinit će ovaj rat krajnje nepopularnim. Je li to uopće tehnički moguće? Što možete učiniti s mobiliziranim ljudima? Koji će se časnici i vojne postrojbe moći nositi s njima? - izjavio je Pavel Luzin, ruski vojni stručnjak dezavuirajući taj scenarij.

Spekuliralo se da bi Moskva mogla zaprijetiti oružjem masovnog uništenja, ali to već radi gotovo od početka agresije. William Burns, direktor CIA-e, u subotu je ponovio da, iako američke obavještajne službe nisu vidjele "praktične dokaze" da Rusija planira rasporediti taktičko nuklearno oružje, "ne možemo olako prihvatiti tu mogućnost" s obzirom na rusko zveckanje oružjem.

Izvanredno stanje?

Ugledna analitička kuća Teneo navodi da bi se "uz objavu rata i mobilizaciju moglo očekivati uvođenje izvanrednog stanja u pojedinim regijama ili čak cijeloj Rusiji … U praksi, uvođenje izvanrednog stanja dodatno bi učvrstilo političku moć u rukama predsjednika i dalo vlastima široke ovlasti za ograničavanje ustavnih prava i reguliranje više aspekata političkog, društvenog i gospodarskog života." Teneo napominje da bi tako nešto bilo posljedica najave mobilizacije.

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Sefa Karacan/AFP
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Među realnijim se scenarijima ističe objava aneksije dosad zauzetih područja uključujući i obalu Azovskog mora pa i Mariupolj. "Izmjenama ruskog ustava iz 2020. godine zabranjeno je davanje ruskog teritorija, što znači da bi povratak tih teritorija putem pregovora postao nemoguć. Nakon aneksije, Moskva bi svaku vojnu prijetnju tim regijama tretirala kao prijetnju vlastitom teritoriju", tumači Teneo.

Ako se taj proces odvije, to i dalje ne podrazumijeva završetak rata jer će Moskva htjeti osigurati dovoljnu stratešku dubinu posebno kopnenog mosta prema Krimu. Ukrajina je osokoljena uspjehom obrane Kijeva i novim oružjem te ne kani tako jednostavno predati Putinu dijelove zemlje.

Tako se čini da će Dan pobjede biti primarno propagandni prikaz navodne moći ruskih konvencionalnih snaga koje su pretrpjele težak poraz u Ukrajini. Putin sigurno želi pokazati i dio nuklearnih kapaciteta i ta prijetnja ostaje, kako kaže direktor Burns, najveća ugroza svijetu sada.

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Danas, u ponedjeljak, 9. svibnja, održat će se tradicionalna vojna parada povodom Dana pobjede u Moskvi. Parada nad koju se nadvila stigma agresije na Ukrajinu, neovisnu, suverenu zemlju u kojoj su ruske snage počinile zločine, izazvale bijeg pet milijuna ljudi, porušile gradove, poubijale brojne civile.

"Zlo se vratilo. Opet!" rekao je ukrajinski predsjednik Volodimir Zelenski u nedjelju, povodom Dana pobjede kada Europa obilježava službenu predaju Njemačke saveznicima u Drugom svjetskom ratu. "U drugom obliku, pod drugim sloganima, ali u istu svrhu." Rekao je da će Ukrajina i njezine saveznice pobijediti. "Nijedno zlo ne može pobjeći od odgovornosti, ne može se sakriti u bunker", dodao je.

Gatanje kremljologa

"Danas se naši vojnici, kao i njihovi preci, bore rame uz rame za oslobođenje svoje domovine od nacističke prljavštine, uvjereni da će, kao i 1945., pobjeda biti naša", rekao je ruski predsjednik Vladimir Putin u poruci upućenoj u nedjelju stanovnicima zemalja bivšega sovjetskog bloka.

Dok je svijet bio fokusiran na moguće poruke. Sve je potaknula priča da Putin želi, kad već nije uspio u tri dana, rat, "specijalnu vojnu operaciju" kako ga zovu u Moskvi, završiti do 9. svibnja kako bi mogao proglasiti novu pobjedu nad nacizmom. U Ukrajini. Budući da se to, na sreću, zahvaljujući ukrajinskoj obrani, nije ostvarilo, pojavila se priča da bi mogao iskoristiti paradu da najavi nove vojne planove. Ako je vjerovati Bloombergu, to neće biti prekid opskrbe Europe plinom jer je Gazprom, prenosi agencija, europskim kupcima poslao pismo s tumačenjem da mogu nastaviti plaćati bez kršenja sankcija, ruskih ili europskih.

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Sefa Karacan/AFP
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Gatalo se u svim analitičkim centrima pa se iskristaliziralo nekoliko poruka koje su se očekivale. Jedna je najava mobilizacije uz najavu općeg rata Ukrajini.

- Proglašavanje mobilizacije učinit će ovaj rat krajnje nepopularnim. Je li to uopće tehnički moguće? Što možete učiniti s mobiliziranim ljudima? Koji će se časnici i vojne postrojbe moći nositi s njima? - izjavio je Pavel Luzin, ruski vojni stručnjak dezavuirajući taj scenarij.

Spekuliralo se da bi Moskva mogla zaprijetiti oružjem masovnog uništenja, ali to već radi gotovo od početka agresije. William Burns, direktor CIA-e, u subotu je ponovio da, iako američke obavještajne službe nisu vidjele "praktične dokaze" da Rusija planira rasporediti taktičko nuklearno oružje, "ne možemo olako prihvatiti tu mogućnost" s obzirom na rusko zveckanje oružjem.

Izvanredno stanje?

Ugledna analitička kuća Teneo navodi da bi se "uz objavu rata i mobilizaciju moglo očekivati uvođenje izvanrednog stanja u pojedinim regijama ili čak cijeloj Rusiji … U praksi, uvođenje izvanrednog stanja dodatno bi učvrstilo političku moć u rukama predsjednika i dalo vlastima široke ovlasti za ograničavanje ustavnih prava i reguliranje više aspekata političkog, društvenog i gospodarskog života." Teneo napominje da bi tako nešto bilo posljedica najave mobilizacije.

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Sefa Karacan/AFP
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Među realnijim se scenarijima ističe objava aneksije dosad zauzetih područja uključujući i obalu Azovskog mora pa i Mariupolj. "Izmjenama ruskog ustava iz 2020. godine zabranjeno je davanje ruskog teritorija, što znači da bi povratak tih teritorija putem pregovora postao nemoguć. Nakon aneksije, Moskva bi svaku vojnu prijetnju tim regijama tretirala kao prijetnju vlastitom teritoriju", tumači Teneo.

Ako se taj proces odvije, to i dalje ne podrazumijeva završetak rata jer će Moskva htjeti osigurati dovoljnu stratešku dubinu posebno kopnenog mosta prema Krimu. Ukrajina je osokoljena uspjehom obrane Kijeva i novim oružjem te ne kani tako jednostavno predati Putinu dijelove zemlje.

Tako se čini da će Dan pobjede biti primarno propagandni prikaz navodne moći ruskih konvencionalnih snaga koje su pretrpjele težak poraz u Ukrajini. Putin sigurno želi pokazati i dio nuklearnih kapaciteta i ta prijetnja ostaje, kako kaže direktor Burns, najveća ugroza svijetu sada.

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Kakvu će poruku Putin uputiti iz Moskve? Tri su moguća scenarija: ‘Uz objavu rata i mobilizaciju, moglo bi se očekivati uvođenje izvanrednog stanjau cijeloj Rusiji‘

Piše Željko Trkanjec/JL
9. svibnja 2022. - 08:58
21938726
PREMIUM
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AFP

Danas, u ponedjeljak, 9. svibnja, održat će se tradicionalna vojna parada povodom Dana pobjede u Moskvi. Parada nad koju se nadvila stigma agresije na Ukrajinu, neovisnu, suverenu zemlju u kojoj su ruske snage počinile zločine, izazvale bijeg pet milijuna ljudi, porušile gradove, poubijale brojne civile.

"Zlo se vratilo. Opet!" rekao je ukrajinski predsjednik Volodimir Zelenski u nedjelju, povodom Dana pobjede kada Europa obilježava službenu predaju Njemačke saveznicima u Drugom svjetskom ratu. "U drugom obliku, pod drugim sloganima, ali u istu svrhu." Rekao je da će Ukrajina i njezine saveznice pobijediti. "Nijedno zlo ne može pobjeći od odgovornosti, ne može se sakriti u bunker", dodao je.

Gatanje kremljologa

"Danas se naši vojnici, kao i njihovi preci, bore rame uz rame za...

#DAN POBJEDE#RUSIJA#VLADIMIR PUTIN#PARADA
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