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[title] => Javni dug Hrvatske pao na 281,8 mlrd kuna ili 74,5 posto BDP-a
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Na kraju rujna prošle godine javni dug Hrvatske iznosio je 281,8 milijardi kuna, što je 0,9 posto ili 2,4 milijarde kuna manje nego godinu dana prije, pa je udio duga u bruto domaćem proizvodu (BDP) pao na najnižu razinu od 2012. godine.
„Uz rast BDP-a u trećem tromjesečju, jačanje domaće valute u odnosu na euro te pad nominalnog iznosa javnog duga, na kraju rujna udio duga opće države u BDP-u spustio se na 74,5 posto, dok je na kraju drugog tromjesečja iznosio 76 posto”, kažu analitičari Raiffeisenbank Austria (RBA), nakon što je nedavno Hrvatska narodna banka (HNB) objavila nove podatke o dugu opće države.
Udio javnog duga u BDP-u od 74,5 posto najniži je od 2012. godine, kada je iznosio 69,4 posto BDP-a.
Analitičari RBA navode da je u odnosu na kraj 2017. dug opće države na kraju rujna bio niži za 1,5 milijardi kuna ili 0,5 posto, što je posljedica smanjenja inozemne komponente javnog duga za 6,6 milijardi kuna.
Unutarnja komponenta duga zabilježila je, pak, rast za 5,1 milijardi kuna po osnovi povećanja duga središnje države, odnosno zaduženja dugoročnim dužničkim vrijednosnim papirima.
Analitičari RBA podsjećaju da su s posljednjim danom 2018. godine plaćena protestirana državna jamstva za Uljanik u iznosu od oko 2,5 milijarde kuna, što će utjecati na pogoršanja salda općeg proračuna, a ujedno i na kretanje javnog duga.
„S obzirom da se radi samo o glavnici te nije plaćen iznos kamata, koji se još treba servisirati, konačan iznos podmirenja jamstava će biti nešto veći. Međutim, kretanja u fiskalnoj statistici ostat će i dalje razmjerno povoljna”, kažu analitičari RBA.
To, kažu, podrazumijeva solidan primarni suficit te daljnji pad omjera javnog duga u odnosu na BDP, četvrtu godinu za redom, pri čemu će pad udjela duga u BDP-u biti potpomognut nastavkom rasta gospodarstva te tečajnim kretanjima.
„Prema našim očekivanjima, javni dug u odnosu na BDP trebao bi se na kraju 2018. zadržati ispod 75 posto, što je gotovo 10 postotnih bodova niže u odnosu na njegovu najvišu razinu zabilježenu krajem 2013. kada je iznosio 84 posto”, zaključuju analitičari RBA.
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Na kraju rujna prošle godine javni dug Hrvatske iznosio je 281,8 milijardi kuna, što je 0,9 posto ili 2,4 milijarde kuna manje nego godinu dana prije, pa je udio duga u bruto domaćem proizvodu (BDP) pao na najnižu razinu od 2012. godine.
„Uz rast BDP-a u trećem tromjesečju, jačanje domaće valute u odnosu na euro te pad nominalnog iznosa javnog duga, na kraju rujna udio duga opće države u BDP-u spustio se na 74,5 posto, dok je na kraju drugog tromjesečja iznosio 76 posto”, kažu analitičari Raiffeisenbank Austria (RBA), nakon što je nedavno Hrvatska narodna banka (HNB) objavila nove podatke o dugu opće države.
Udio javnog duga u BDP-u od 74,5 posto najniži je od 2012. godine, kada je iznosio 69,4 posto BDP-a.
Analitičari RBA navode da je u odnosu na kraj 2017. dug opće države na kraju rujna bio niži za 1,5 milijardi kuna ili 0,5 posto, što je posljedica smanjenja inozemne komponente javnog duga za 6,6 milijardi kuna.
Unutarnja komponenta duga zabilježila je, pak, rast za 5,1 milijardi kuna po osnovi povećanja duga središnje države, odnosno zaduženja dugoročnim dužničkim vrijednosnim papirima.
Analitičari RBA podsjećaju da su s posljednjim danom 2018. godine plaćena protestirana državna jamstva za Uljanik u iznosu od oko 2,5 milijarde kuna, što će utjecati na pogoršanja salda općeg proračuna, a ujedno i na kretanje javnog duga.
„S obzirom da se radi samo o glavnici te nije plaćen iznos kamata, koji se još treba servisirati, konačan iznos podmirenja jamstava će biti nešto veći. Međutim, kretanja u fiskalnoj statistici ostat će i dalje razmjerno povoljna”, kažu analitičari RBA.
To, kažu, podrazumijeva solidan primarni suficit te daljnji pad omjera javnog duga u odnosu na BDP, četvrtu godinu za redom, pri čemu će pad udjela duga u BDP-u biti potpomognut nastavkom rasta gospodarstva te tečajnim kretanjima.
„Prema našim očekivanjima, javni dug u odnosu na BDP trebao bi se na kraju 2018. zadržati ispod 75 posto, što je gotovo 10 postotnih bodova niže u odnosu na njegovu najvišu razinu zabilježenu krajem 2013. kada je iznosio 84 posto”, zaključuju analitičari RBA.
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15. svibanj 2024 12:47
