SD Dojavi
OSMRTNICE
PRETPLATA
PREMIUM
stdClass Object ( [id] => 1147442 [title] => DHMZ objavio dugoročnu prognozu za zimu pred nama: klimatološki će početi ranije, a Dalmacija će u dva mjeseca dobro pokisnuti [alias] => dhmz-objavio-dugorocnu-prognozu-za-zimu-pred-nama-klimatoloski-ce-poceti-ranije-a-dalmacija-ce-u-dva-mjeseca-dobro-pokisnuti [catid] => 142 [published] => 1 [introtext] => [fulltext] =>

Državni hidrometeorološki zavod (DHMZ) objavio je veliku prognozu za zimu, navodeći na početku svojih atmosferskih predviđanja da je već kraj studenog donio u unutrašnjost mjestimice zimski ugođaj - bilo je snijega, izmjeren je i snježni pokrivač, a zadnji dan mjeseca zbog minimalne temperature ponegdje, kako navode, gotovo da je i opravdao ime studeni, piše Jutarnji list. 

Klimatološki, zima počinje 1. prosinca 2021. i traje do 28. veljače 2022., dok astronomska ili kalendarska zima traje od 21. prosinca 2021. do 20. ožujka 2022., navodi DHMZ.

Prema dostupnom prognostičkom materijalu koji se koristi u Sektoru za vremenske i pomorske analize te prognoze DHMZ-a, sezonska prognoza za zimu, kako navode, ukazuje na najvjerojatnije pozitivno odstupanje temperature od višegodišnjeg prosjeka, odnosno na zimu topliju od uobičajenog ili najmanje prosječno toplu.

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Zima 2021., srednja temperatura zraka - percentili u odnosu na normalu 1981.-2010.
 
Dhmz
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"Vjerojatnost ostvarenja prognoze je razmjerno velika. Ako promatramo sezonu po mjesecima, veća vjerojatnost pozitivnog odstupanja temperature od srednjaka postoji u Dalmaciji i to u siječnju i veljači. Iako se općenito očekuje toplija zima od prosjeka, to ne znači da neće biti kraćih razdoblja kada uz prodore hladnog zraka temperatura može biti i osjetno niža od uobičajene, i na kopnu i na moru", navode u DHMZ-u.

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Kod prognoze količine oborine na sezonskoj skali svakako, kažu, treba naglasiti da je ta prognoza mnogo složenija od prognoze temperature pa je i njezina pouzdanost za dulje vremensko razdoblje manja.

"Za ovu zimu nema izraženog signala za veće odstupanje količine oborine od višegodišnjeg prosjeka pa uz umjerenu vjerojatnost ostvarenja prognoze možemo reći da je izgledna količina oborine oko uobičajene. Međutim, gledajući na mjesečnoj skali, postoji vjerojatnost za količinu oborine veću od uobičajene u siječnju i veljači i to uglavnom u Dalmaciji".

Pritom naglašavaju da se u dugoročnim prognozama ne može precizirati tip oborine - kiša, snijeg, susnježica, kiša koja se smrzava na tlu i slično - te da isto tako valja imati na umu da se tijekom sezone mogu izmjenjivati razdoblja s manjkom oborine.

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image
Zima 2021., količina oborine - percentili u odnosu na normalu 1981.-2010.
 
Dhmz
---

"Na kraju treba naglasiti da uz informacije koje nam donosi sezonska prognoza, svakako valja pratiti i vremenska izvješća i upozorenja koja se odnose na kraće vremensko razdoblje, osobito kada je u pitanju vrsta oborine ili vremenski ekstremi (npr. obilne količine oborine, kiša koja se smrzava na tlu, te nagla i izražena zahladnjenja)".

Sezonska prognoza za zimu, ističu, u skladu je s prognozom Klimatskog foruma za jugoistočnu Europu (SEECOF) te Klimatskog foruma za područje Mediterana i sjeverne Afrike, kojih je Hrvatska članica.

Sezonska prognoza je, kako navode, vrsta dugoročne prognoze i rezultat je interpretacije velike količine dostupnog prognostičkog materijala, a sezonska prognoza Sektora za vremenske i pomorske analize i prognoze DHMZ-a ponajprije se odnosi na podatke dobivene računalnim modelom za dugoročnu prognozu, a koje DHMZ, kao predstavnik Republike Hrvatske, preuzima iz Europskog centra za srednjoročne vremenske prognoze (ECMWF) čije je sjedište u Readingu u Velikoj Britaniji.

U obzir se, objašnjavaju, uzimaju i dugoročne prognoze ostalih velikih meteoroloških službi iz Velike Britanije (Met Office), Francuske (Meteo France), Italije (CMCC), Njemačke (DWD), SAD-a (IRI, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, University of Columbia; CPC, NOAA) i Japana (JAMSTEC - Japanska meteorološka agencija) te servisa C3S (The Copernicus Climate Change Service), u kojem su produkti svih navedenih modela objedinjeni.

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Državni hidrometeorološki zavod (DHMZ) objavio je veliku prognozu za zimu, navodeći na početku svojih atmosferskih predviđanja da je već kraj studenog donio u unutrašnjost mjestimice zimski ugođaj - bilo je snijega, izmjeren je i snježni pokrivač, a zadnji dan mjeseca zbog minimalne temperature ponegdje, kako navode, gotovo da je i opravdao ime studeni, piše Jutarnji list. 

Klimatološki, zima počinje 1. prosinca 2021. i traje do 28. veljače 2022., dok astronomska ili kalendarska zima traje od 21. prosinca 2021. do 20. ožujka 2022., navodi DHMZ.

Prema dostupnom prognostičkom materijalu koji se koristi u Sektoru za vremenske i pomorske analize te prognoze DHMZ-a, sezonska prognoza za zimu, kako navode, ukazuje na najvjerojatnije pozitivno odstupanje temperature od višegodišnjeg prosjeka, odnosno na zimu topliju od uobičajenog ili najmanje prosječno toplu.

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image
Zima 2021., srednja temperatura zraka - percentili u odnosu na normalu 1981.-2010.
 
Dhmz
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"Vjerojatnost ostvarenja prognoze je razmjerno velika. Ako promatramo sezonu po mjesecima, veća vjerojatnost pozitivnog odstupanja temperature od srednjaka postoji u Dalmaciji i to u siječnju i veljači. Iako se općenito očekuje toplija zima od prosjeka, to ne znači da neće biti kraćih razdoblja kada uz prodore hladnog zraka temperatura može biti i osjetno niža od uobičajene, i na kopnu i na moru", navode u DHMZ-u.

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Kod prognoze količine oborine na sezonskoj skali svakako, kažu, treba naglasiti da je ta prognoza mnogo složenija od prognoze temperature pa je i njezina pouzdanost za dulje vremensko razdoblje manja.

"Za ovu zimu nema izraženog signala za veće odstupanje količine oborine od višegodišnjeg prosjeka pa uz umjerenu vjerojatnost ostvarenja prognoze možemo reći da je izgledna količina oborine oko uobičajene. Međutim, gledajući na mjesečnoj skali, postoji vjerojatnost za količinu oborine veću od uobičajene u siječnju i veljači i to uglavnom u Dalmaciji".

Pritom naglašavaju da se u dugoročnim prognozama ne može precizirati tip oborine - kiša, snijeg, susnježica, kiša koja se smrzava na tlu i slično - te da isto tako valja imati na umu da se tijekom sezone mogu izmjenjivati razdoblja s manjkom oborine.

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image
Zima 2021., količina oborine - percentili u odnosu na normalu 1981.-2010.
 
Dhmz
---

"Na kraju treba naglasiti da uz informacije koje nam donosi sezonska prognoza, svakako valja pratiti i vremenska izvješća i upozorenja koja se odnose na kraće vremensko razdoblje, osobito kada je u pitanju vrsta oborine ili vremenski ekstremi (npr. obilne količine oborine, kiša koja se smrzava na tlu, te nagla i izražena zahladnjenja)".

Sezonska prognoza za zimu, ističu, u skladu je s prognozom Klimatskog foruma za jugoistočnu Europu (SEECOF) te Klimatskog foruma za područje Mediterana i sjeverne Afrike, kojih je Hrvatska članica.

Sezonska prognoza je, kako navode, vrsta dugoročne prognoze i rezultat je interpretacije velike količine dostupnog prognostičkog materijala, a sezonska prognoza Sektora za vremenske i pomorske analize i prognoze DHMZ-a ponajprije se odnosi na podatke dobivene računalnim modelom za dugoročnu prognozu, a koje DHMZ, kao predstavnik Republike Hrvatske, preuzima iz Europskog centra za srednjoročne vremenske prognoze (ECMWF) čije je sjedište u Readingu u Velikoj Britaniji.

U obzir se, objašnjavaju, uzimaju i dugoročne prognoze ostalih velikih meteoroloških službi iz Velike Britanije (Met Office), Francuske (Meteo France), Italije (CMCC), Njemačke (DWD), SAD-a (IRI, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, University of Columbia; CPC, NOAA) i Japana (JAMSTEC - Japanska meteorološka agencija) te servisa C3S (The Copernicus Climate Change Service), u kojem su produkti svih navedenih modela objedinjeni.

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Nikola Vilić/Cropix Dhmz Dhmz
Dhmz
Zima 2021., količina oborine - percentili u odnosu na normalu 1981.-2010.
 
Dhmz
Zima 2021., srednja temperatura zraka - percentili u odnosu na normalu 1981.-2010.
 
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Hrvatskanajavili sinoptičari

DHMZ objavio dugoročnu prognozu za zimu pred nama: klimatološki će početi ranije, a Dalmacija će u dva mjeseca dobro pokisnuti

Piše PSD
30. studenog 2021. - 21:32
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 Nikola Vilić/Cropix

Državni hidrometeorološki zavod (DHMZ) objavio je veliku prognozu za zimu, navodeći na početku svojih atmosferskih predviđanja da je već kraj studenog donio u unutrašnjost mjestimice zimski ugođaj - bilo je snijega, izmjeren je i snježni pokrivač, a zadnji dan mjeseca zbog minimalne temperature ponegdje, kako navode, gotovo da je i opravdao ime studeni, piše Jutarnji list. 

Klimatološki, zima počinje 1. prosinca 2021. i traje do 28. veljače 2022., dok astronomska ili kalendarska zima traje od 21. prosinca 2021. do 20. ožujka 2022., navodi DHMZ.

Prema dostupnom prognostičkom materijalu koji se koristi u Sektoru za vremenske i pomorske analize te prognoze DHMZ-a, sezonska prognoza za zimu, kako navode, ukazuje na najvjerojatnije pozitivno odstupanje temperature od višegodišn...

#ZIMA#SINOPTIČARI #NAJAVE#PROGNOZE#KIŠA
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