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[title] => Klimatske promjene uzrokuju da toplinski valovi postanu dulji, češći i intenzivniji
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Klimatske promjene uzrokuju usporavanje toplinskih valova, izlažući ljude ekstremnim temperaturama dulje nego ikada prije, navodi se u studiji objavljenoj u časopisu Science Advances, prenosi Novi list.
Dok su prethodna istraživanja otkrila da klimatske promjene uzrokuju da toplinski valovi postanu dulji, češći i intenzivniji, nova se studija razlikuje po tome što je toplinske valove tretirala kao različite vremenske uzorke koji se kreću duž zračnih struja, baš kao što to čine oluje.
Za svako desetljeće između 1979. i 2020., znanstvenici su otkrili da su toplinski valovi usporeni za prosječno osam kilometara na sat dnevno.
"Ako se toplinski val kreće sporije, to znači da toplina može duže ostati u regiji, tako da to ima utjecaja na zajednice", rekao je za AFP jedan od voditelja istraživanja Wei Zhang sa Sveučilišta Utah State.
Znanstvenici su podijelili svijet u ćelije trodimenzionalne mreže i definirali toplinske valove kao zone od milijun četvornih kilometara u kojima su temperature dosegle najmanje 95. percentil lokalne povijesne maksimalne temperature.
Zatim su mjerili njihovo kretanje tijekom vremena kako bi odredili koliko se brzo kreće vrući zrak.
Također su koristili klimatske modele kako bi odredili kako bi rezultati izgledali da nije bilo klimatskih promjena izazvanih ljudskim djelovanjem, te su otkrili da je utjecaj faktora koji su djelo ljudskih ruku veliki.
"Prilično nam je jasno da je dominantan faktor koji objašnjava ovaj trend antropogeni utjecaj, staklenički plin", rekao je Zhang.
Promjene su se osobito ubrzale od 1997. godine, a osim ljudskih uzroka, slabljenje cirkulacije zraka u gornjim slojevima atmosfere moglo bi igrati ulogu, piše u radu.
Trajanje toplinskih valova također se povećalo, s prosječnih osam dana na početku, na 12 dana tijekom posljednjih pet godina razdoblja istraživanja.
"Rezultati sugeriraju da će dugotrajniji i sporiji veliki kontinuirani toplinski valovi uzrokovati razornije učinke na prirodne i društvene sustave u budućnosti ako staklenički plin nastavi rasti, a ne poduzmu se učinkovite mjere za ublažavanje", napisali su autori.
Zhang je rekao da je zabrinut zbog nerazmjernih utjecaja na manje razvijene regije.
"Konkretno, gradovi koji nemaju dovoljno zelene infrastrukture ili nemaju mnogo rashladnih centara za ljude, posebno za stanovništvo u nepovoljnom položaju, bit će vrlo opasni", upozorio je.
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Klimatske promjene uzrokuju usporavanje toplinskih valova, izlažući ljude ekstremnim temperaturama dulje nego ikada prije, navodi se u studiji objavljenoj u časopisu Science Advances, prenosi Novi list.
Dok su prethodna istraživanja otkrila da klimatske promjene uzrokuju da toplinski valovi postanu dulji, češći i intenzivniji, nova se studija razlikuje po tome što je toplinske valove tretirala kao različite vremenske uzorke koji se kreću duž zračnih struja, baš kao što to čine oluje.
Za svako desetljeće između 1979. i 2020., znanstvenici su otkrili da su toplinski valovi usporeni za prosječno osam kilometara na sat dnevno.
"Ako se toplinski val kreće sporije, to znači da toplina može duže ostati u regiji, tako da to ima utjecaja na zajednice", rekao je za AFP jedan od voditelja istraživanja Wei Zhang sa Sveučilišta Utah State.
Znanstvenici su podijelili svijet u ćelije trodimenzionalne mreže i definirali toplinske valove kao zone od milijun četvornih kilometara u kojima su temperature dosegle najmanje 95. percentil lokalne povijesne maksimalne temperature.
Zatim su mjerili njihovo kretanje tijekom vremena kako bi odredili koliko se brzo kreće vrući zrak.
Također su koristili klimatske modele kako bi odredili kako bi rezultati izgledali da nije bilo klimatskih promjena izazvanih ljudskim djelovanjem, te su otkrili da je utjecaj faktora koji su djelo ljudskih ruku veliki.
"Prilično nam je jasno da je dominantan faktor koji objašnjava ovaj trend antropogeni utjecaj, staklenički plin", rekao je Zhang.
Promjene su se osobito ubrzale od 1997. godine, a osim ljudskih uzroka, slabljenje cirkulacije zraka u gornjim slojevima atmosfere moglo bi igrati ulogu, piše u radu.
Trajanje toplinskih valova također se povećalo, s prosječnih osam dana na početku, na 12 dana tijekom posljednjih pet godina razdoblja istraživanja.
"Rezultati sugeriraju da će dugotrajniji i sporiji veliki kontinuirani toplinski valovi uzrokovati razornije učinke na prirodne i društvene sustave u budućnosti ako staklenički plin nastavi rasti, a ne poduzmu se učinkovite mjere za ublažavanje", napisali su autori.
Zhang je rekao da je zabrinut zbog nerazmjernih utjecaja na manje razvijene regije.
"Konkretno, gradovi koji nemaju dovoljno zelene infrastrukture ili nemaju mnogo rashladnih centara za ljude, posebno za stanovništvo u nepovoljnom položaju, bit će vrlo opasni", upozorio je.
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15. svibanj 2024 00:42
